Arthur Hayes says monetary policy key to next Bitcoin rally
Bitcoin remains one of the key assets in the crypto market, although some major investors are still reluctant to rush into new purchases. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that the next strong surge in cryptocurrency prices will be directly linked to changes in global monetary policy.
In his view, the performance of digital assets today is closely tied to the broader macroeconomic environment. This includes central bank actions, inflation levels, stock market conditions, and geopolitical risks that have intensified in recent months, Cointelegraph reports.
Hayes prefers to wait
Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, Hayes admitted that he is not currently increasing his Bitcoin positions and is instead watching developments across global financial markets.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said.
According to him, the key signal for a new entry into the crypto market will be a shift by central banks toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Hayes believes that cryptocurrency rallies traditionally accelerate during periods of rapid expansion in money supply.
He also noted that geopolitical conflicts themselves are not a direct driver of Bitcoin’s growth. What matters more is the reaction of financial authorities, as large stimulus programs and rising liquidity in the economy tend to create favorable conditions for digital assets.
At the same time, he warned that escalating international tensions could trigger short-term sell-offs across markets. In particular, he pointed to risks related to the conflict between the United States and Iran, which could increase pressure on both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The market could face a new wave of liquidations
Hayes also believes that the crypto market could go through another phase of decline before the next growth cycle begins. According to him, the price of the cryptocurrency could temporarily fall below $60,000, potentially triggering a chain reaction of liquidations in derivatives markets.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,000, significantly below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. Despite the correction, Hayes remains optimistic about the long-term outlook and still sees the price potentially reaching $250,000.
Some analysts, however, expect a more positive scenario in the near term. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that strong performance of the Nasdaq technology index could support digital assets.
“There are not many arguments left for uncertainty, and in that principle, I do think we'll see way more upside into Bitcoin & Altcoins during the coming period,” van de Poppe said.
In the near term, investors will focus on decisions by the Federal Reserve, inflation data, and conditions in stock markets. These signals could determine the direction of the next stage of cryptocurrency growth.
Read also: Bitcoin leads market recovery
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