Bitwise: Bitcoin does not need to match gold to reach $1 million
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that BTC could reach $1 million per coin if it captures only a portion of the global store-of-value market. According to him, many skeptics consider such a price unrealistic.
The main argument from critics is that BTC would need to capture around 50% of gold’s market capitalization, Cointelegraph reports.
However, Hougan believes this assumption is flawed. He argues that the overall market for store-of-value assets is constantly expanding. As a result, the share BTC would need to reach $1 million could be significantly smaller.
The store-of-value market is expanding rapidly
According to Bitwise, the market capitalization of gold has grown at roughly 13% annually since 2004. During this period, the market expanded from $2.5 trillion to about $38 trillion. Key drivers included rising government debt, geopolitical instability and accommodative monetary policy.
If a similar growth pace continues, the total store-of-value market could reach $121 trillion within the next decade. In that scenario, BTC would need only about 17% of the market for the price of a single coin to approach $1 million. Hougan believes this outcome is realistic.
Institutional demand could accelerate growth
Bitwise argues that institutional investment could become a key driver of BTC’s growth. In recent years, the cryptocurrency has become accessible through ETFs, investment funds and corporate portfolios.
Some sovereign wealth funds have also begun considering digital assets. Expanding institutional participation could gradually increase BTC’s share of the store-of-value market. Hougan believes this process has already started. In his view, the current pace of adoption could lead to significantly higher prices in the future.
BTC still does not move in line with gold
Despite the “digital gold” narrative, BTC has not yet shown a stable correlation with the precious metal. At the end of January, the price of gold reached a record high of about $5,327 per ounce. It currently remains only about 2.2% below that level.
BTC, meanwhile, is trading roughly 44% below its October peak. Some investors therefore question whether cryptocurrency can become a true safe-haven asset. Billionaire Ray Dalio recently said that gold remains a more reliable store of value because central banks still do not buy BTC.
Recently we wrote that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is holding near $2.37 trillion despite a slight decline of about 0.45% over the past 24 hours, while the Fear & Greed index stands around 25, remaining in the fear zone but showing a gradual improvement in investor sentiment.
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