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The amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since late 2017. On-chain data shows that after peaking in early 2020, the share of Bitcoin on exchange wallets has been steadily decreasing without interruption.
The decline in exchange supply means that an increasingly smaller portion of circulating Bitcoins is available for quick sale through centralized platforms. The current level of this metric matches values seen in November 2017. The publication notes that investors have been consistently withdrawing assets from exchanges over the past few years, and the trend toward self-custody has only strengthened.
Analysts from Santiment interpret the supply on exchanges metric as an indicator of market sentiment: a decline usually signals the transfer of coins to private wallets or custodial solutions, while an increase indicates potential readiness among holders to sell. In the current cycle, the market is clearly following the first scenario.
One of the reasons for this trend is structural changes in the market following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, expanding institutional access to the asset. A significant portion of Bitcoin is now being accumulated and stored not on regular exchanges, but in corporate custodial solutions, including services like Coinbase Prime and Fidelity.
Another factor is the growing popularity of cold storage. After the collapse of major crypto platforms in recent years, the market has become notably more cautious about storing assets on exchanges. This applies to both retail investors and large holders, who are increasingly transferring Bitcoin to hardware wallets and other forms of self-storage.
A low supply of BTC on exchanges generally means thinner order books: if demand suddenly accelerates, fewer sellers on the market may be able to quickly satisfy that demand. In such conditions, even moderate buying pressure can lead to significant price volatility.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $71,476, remaining 43.3% below its all-time high.
The key fact is that the market is receiving two signals simultaneously: supply on exchanges is at its lowest point in more than eight years, and a significant portion of Bitcoin is being moved into long-term storage outside of public trading platforms.
We have previously highlighted that large invesors resume BTC accumulation after January selloff.