Rising BTC inflows to exchanges point to selling pressure
Activity among Bitcoin holders on centralized exchanges has intensified sharply. The volume of BTC transfers to exchanges has expanded alongside the recent price rebound, which is traditionally seen as a potential signal of profit-taking.
Such movements often accelerate ahead of key macroeconomic events that may influence market sentiment, Cointelegraph notes.
Exchange inflows and behavior of large players
According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, hourly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges reached 6,100 BTC on March 16 — the highest level since late February. Large transactions accounted for 63% of total inflows, marking the highest share since October 2025.
The increase in transfers coincided with price gains: Bitcoin rose about 12% in March, reaching around $76,000 on March 17. Typically, such transfers are associated with preparations to sell or convert assets into stablecoins.
“Historically, spikes in large deposits to exchanges have been associated with increased selling pressure,” the analyst said.
Another factor is the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. According to CME data, markets assign a 98.9% probability to rates remaining unchanged, with little expectation of near-term shifts.
Resistance levels and short-term dynamics
Despite the rally, Bitcoin has not managed to hold above $75,000. Over the past 24 hours, the price approached this level several times but failed to break through.
Moreno links this to on-chain metrics: current levels align with the lower bound of traders’ realized price, a metric that has previously acted as resistance.
“These levels represent the lower band of the traders’ onchain Realized Price, which historically acts as price resistance in bear markets,” he said.
The next key level is around $84,700 — the average entry price of active market participants, which has previously capped upside.
What investors should consider
The current rise in inflows suggests that large holders are increasingly taking profits. In such conditions, the market becomes more sensitive to external factors, including Fed decisions and overall liquidity conditions.
At the same time, demand structure is evolving: the share of long-term holders and institutional investors continues to grow, which may help smooth sharp price swings.
If Bitcoin manages to break above $75,000, it could open the way to higher levels. Otherwise, the market may shift into consolidation or a short-term correction — a typical phase after rapid gains.
Regulatory uncertainty remains another factor. Citigroup has revised its outlook on major crypto assets, citing slower legislative progress in the U.S. Prolonged debates over regulation, the bank noted, are holding back capital inflows into the sector.
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