XRP dips below moving averages as traders weigh Polymarket ETF speculation
XRP price has experienced selling pressure this week after failing to surpass the $2.50 psychological level. The rejection triggered a 5% drop, sending prices to a seven-day low of $2.33. Today, March 27, XRP rebounded 1.8% in the Asian session, reaching $2.39, but has since retreated to $2.36 in the European session.
On the technical front, XRP’s 5% decline broke below the 50 and 100 EMA on the four-hour chart, with these levels now acting as resistance around $2.40. The daily RSI remains neutral, but the four-hour RSI indicates bearish momentum, suggesting that downward pressure persists. Should XRP fail to reclaim the $2.40 resistance, the next key support level sits at $2.26.
XRP price dynamics (March 2025). Source: TradingView
Polymarket assigns 86% probability to XRP ETF approval in 2025
While short-term price action remains under pressure, speculation surrounding an XRP ETF approval in 2025 has gained traction. On March 26, Polymarket users assigned an 86% probability that an XRP ETF product would receive SEC approval by year-end. However, the market only sees a 42% chance of approval before July 31. Despite being a betting platform, Polymarket has historically demonstrated over 90% accuracy in its predictions one month before market resolutions, according to Dune Analytics.
As traders closely monitor RSI trends and ETF-related developments for potential catalysts in the coming weeks, XRP’s near-term outlook hinges on whether it can break above the $2.40 resistance. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a retest of $2.50. However, failure to hold current levels may see a deeper pullback toward $2.26 support.
XRP gained 14% this month, but ETF speculation failed to spark volatility. Technically, it traded within a tight 4% range, holding above the 50-day EMA at $2.420.
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