Bittensor gains 11.63% as bullish momentum continues after Covenant-72B model launch

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Bittensor surges 11.63% to $339.80

Highlights

Bittensor's launch of the Covenant-72B model on Subnet 3 and changes in TAO rewards allocation drove subnet token value to $1.5 billion.
Institutional engagement rose with the listing of a staked TAO ETP on Nasdaq Stockholm and Grayscale's introduction of a private Bittensor Trust.
TAO displays strong bullish momentum with buyers in control, trading is expected to consolidate between $312 and $350 amid overbought signals.

Institutional inflows and protocol shifts spur liquidity amid halving debate

Bittensor advanced its ecosystem with the public launch of the permissionlessly trained large language model Covenant-72B on Subnet 3, drawing increased attention to subnet tokens and pushing their cumulative value to $1.5 billion. Institutional participation has grown, marked by the listing of a staked TAO ETP on Nasdaq Stockholm and Grayscale's SEC filing and launch of a private Bittensor Trust for accredited investors. Adjustments in protocol emissions now channel TAO rewards into subnet liquidity pools, triggering a surge in 24-hour trading volumes to over $773 million, while discussions about relatively modest external protocol revenues continue as the next halving approaches.

Overbought risk emerges as buyers dominate amid high volatility

TAO is trading well above the SMA-20 ($242.01), SMA-50 ($202.74), and SMA-200 ($284.28), highlighting strong bullish momentum across all timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $252.40 now acts as immediate support. Technical indicators show robust momentum, with MACD and ADX signaling clear upward strength. RSI (78.58), Stoch RSI (90.83), and CCI (133.28) all indicate overbought conditions, while BBP readings confirm significant buyer dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, providing little confirmation of direction. TAO opened at $337.50 after a previous close of $304.40, marking an upside gap and is currently near today's high of $343.80, reflecting strong buyer control amid high volatility. However, the overbought signals indicate a risk of near-term pullback even as momentum remains elevated.

Upside probability holds as consolidation bands guide near-term outlook

For the next five trading days, TAO is expected to trade within a volatility band between $312.00 and $350.00 based on typical price fluctuation ranges. Indicators emphasize an 80% probability of a continued move higher, as upward signals dominate weekly and daily technical setups, making a near-term pullback less likely. The base case is for TAO to consolidate between $312 and $350 as buyers and sellers find equilibrium. A break above $350 could trigger further gains, while a decline below $312 would point to profit-taking, especially if overbought conditions prompt a short-term reversal.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees strong technical momentum for Bittensor but notes that several indicators now show overbought readings. He believes institutional interest and evolving protocol mechanics are clear positives, yet warns that rapid price gains can invite near-term pullbacks, especially as the next halving approaches. The base case is consolidation between $312.00 and $350.00 with risks of profit-taking if support breaks. "I remain cautious here — overbought signals suggest the risk of a short-term reversal, so I would wait for a clearer pullback or confirmed breakout before adding exposure."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bittensor was exhibiting strong bullish momentum, though cautioning that overbought conditions could pose short-term risks. The current sustained upside, coupled with ecosystem advancements and growing institutional involvement, heightens the focus on a potential breakout above $350 as the next catalyst for further gains.

Source of Data: TAO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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