Bitcoin price prediction: Can BTC rebound from oversold territory or will losses deepen?

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Bitcoin drops 3.34% to $66,340 today

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a second consecutive day of net outflows totaling $225.62 million, with BlackRock leading withdrawals.
Morgan Stanley seeks SEC approval to launch a low-cost spot Bitcoin ETF featuring a 0.14% fee and a $5 billion fee waiver for six months.
Bitcoin is trading below major moving averages with bearish momentum, a projected five-day range of $63,200 to $69,100, and a low probability of price recovery.

ETF outflows and policy shifts weigh on institutional demand

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a second consecutive day of net outflows on March 28, 2026, totaling $225.62 million, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust leading withdrawals. Morgan Stanley filed to launch a low-cost U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF with a proposed 0.14% annual fee and a planned $5 billion six-month fee waiver, pending SEC approval. Corporate bitcoin treasury purchases have slowed significantly, and a draft U.S. House bill was introduced to overhaul digital asset taxation, prompting criticism from some Bitcoin advocates.

Bearish momentum persists as oscillators remain oversold

Momentum signals remain subdued on D1, with MACD neutral and below zero, and ADX at 18.26 signaling weak trend strength; on W1, both MACD and ADX confirm a bearish tone. RSI (40.57) and CCI (–155.25) on D1 are anchored in oversold territory, as is Stoch RSI, indicating potential for technical rebounds though underlying momentum remains negative. BBP is deeply negative and oversold, confirming that sellers dominate intraday action. There was no significant gap between the previous close and today's open, and after a 3.34% daily drop to $66,340.25, the price is holding near the session’s low. Volatility has been moderately high, and the intraday tone is under pronounced downward pressure after the open. Momentum and oscillators are mostly aligned to the downside, although oversold readings could lead to short-lived corrective bounces.

Downside bias dominates as recovery hinges on resistance break

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $63,200 to $69,100. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely. The baseline scenario foresees Bitcoin consolidating in a wide sideways corridor, while a bullish outcome would require a recovery above the $70,600 resistance zone, potentially targeting the upper weekly range. A bearish scenario would see BTC slipping below support in the $63,200 area, opening the way for deeper retracements if momentum remains weak and macro signals do not improve.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin under tangible pressure as seller momentum dominates both price action and sentiment. He points to recent ETF outflows and the lack of robust corporate demand as key drivers dampening optimism. Macro and regulatory uncertainties add to the challenging backdrop. However, Karapetjanc remains watchful for a technical rebound off oversold signals. "Despite short-term weakness, any shift in institutional flows or regulatory clarity could quickly revive bullish sentiment in Bitcoin."

Previously it was reported that cryptocurrencies in Latin America have evolved from temporary hedges against inflation into foundational financial infrastructure, with growing adoption for payments, remittances, and cross-border transactions. Recent weakness in Bitcoin price action now presents a risk to this evolving ecosystem, making the $63,200 support area crucial to monitor as a break below could trigger broader volatility across crypto markets.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.