Will Bitcoin hold $61,784 support amid ongoing ETF outflows and bearish technicals?

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Bitcoin drops 4.11% today to $64,530

Highlights

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.07 billion in net outflows last week, extending a multiweek institutional selloff.
Crypto ETFs experienced $1.53 billion in outflows between November 9 and 13, with most withdrawals from bitcoin funds and demand remaining weak.
BTC/USD trades below key moving averages, with short- and long-term trends bearish and a projected range of $61,784 to $67,276 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Heavy ETF outflows exacerbate institutional sell pressure on bitcoin

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.07 billion in net outflows last week, the second consecutive week of withdrawals above $1 billion, according to The Block. This large-scale redemption activity reflects significant institutional selling, as ETF liquidations require underlying Bitcoin to be sold, applying direct pressure to the market. Additional data from Crypto confirmed that Crypto ETFs lost a combined $1.53 billion between November 9 and 13, with Bitcoin funds accounting for the bulk of these outflows and compounding the weaker demand backdrop.

Immediate resistance holds as selling momentum coexists with neutral signals

On the hourly timeframe, BTC is positioned below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with immediate resistance marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $64,882. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD signals strong selling pressure and ADX confirms a sell trigger, while RSI and CCI remain neutral. Stoch RSI is in the overbought zone, hinting at possible short-term overheating, and Bull/Bear Power is positive, indicating some intraday buying interest. Awesome Oscillator shows a neutral reading, underscoring the lack of a confirmed reversal.

Sideways bias prevails as downside risk outweighs limited upside

In the short term, BTC is expected to trade within the $61,784 to $67,276 volatility band. Downward movement remains more probable, with a 75% likelihood based on current technical and market signals. Although limited upside cannot be excluded, any bullish scenario would require a clear breakout above immediate resistance, while further declines may be triggered if price falls below nearby support. The base case is for a sideways trading corridor over the next 2–3 sessions.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees further downside risks for Bitcoin given the scale of recent institutional outflows. He notes that redemptions from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs reflect weaker sentiment and directly impact market demand. Technical signals are mixed, with price action still below key averages and momentum lacking a clear reversal. However, a breakout above resistance could shift the outlook. "Despite continued pressure from ETF outflows, I remain constructive on Bitcoin’s medium-term potential if we see volume return above $64,882."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing technical weakness were driving a sustained bearish trend in Bitcoin. The latest data underscores and amplifies this pressure, with continued major ETF redemptions intensifying downside risk and highlighting the importance of monitoring the $61,784 support for any potential further declines.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.