Neutral session for Bitcoin as Iran threatens to exit ceasefire over Lebanon strikes

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitcoin down 0.70% today at $71,274

Highlights

A temporary US-Iran ceasefire boosted sentiment and stabilized Bitcoin above $71,000, but renewed threats from Iran raise geopolitical risk and endanger regional negotiations.
US regulators announced stricter oversight on digital asset flows targeting stablecoin issuers, while Iran considers requiring tankers to pay Strait of Hormuz fees in Bitcoin or yuan to bypass sanctions.
Bitcoin trades sideways between $70,900 and $71,700 with technicals signaling buyer dominance but overbought conditions and a higher risk of short-term downside.

Geopolitical relief lifts sentiment as Iran-U.S. truce faces renewed threat

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has temporarily eased geopolitical tensions, lifting market sentiment and prompting Bitcoin to reclaim and stabilize above the $71,000 level. However, the situation remains fragile as on Wednesday Iran threatened to withdraw from the agreement if Israeli strikes on Lebanon persist, injecting renewed uncertainty and putting further negotiations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz at risk. On April 8, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a new regulatory initiative to tighten oversight of digital asset flows, including stricter anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance requirements for stablecoin issuers and related firms, targeting illicit crypto activity and cross-border financial crime. In parallel, Iranian sources have signaled intentions to require oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pay passage fees in Bitcoin or Chinese yuan, seeking to circumvent traditional financial channels and international sanctions, while U.S. authorities reaffirm that crypto transfers remain subject to OFAC restrictions and can be prosecuted as sanctions evasion.

Short-term buyer dominance counters overbought signals amid mixed momentum

BTC is holding above its key short- and medium-term SMAs, with the current price of $71,274.26 trading higher than both the SMA-20 ($68,644.88) and SMA-50 ($68,778.53). The price remains well below the longer-term SMA-200 ($88,713.25), indicating a bullish short- to mid-term bias, while longer-term momentum is still under pressure from sellers. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $70,500.00 sits below the current price and acts as immediate support. Momentum on D1 remains mostly neutral, as MACD provides a sideways cue and ADX hints at weak trend strength. Oscillators present mixed signals: RSI (56.05) suggests moderate buying, while the CCI (129.43) and Stoch RSI (83.28) indicate overbought conditions. BBP shows persistent buyer dominance intraday, confirming positive sentiment, although the AO remains neutral. BTC opened at $71,042.90, slightly below the previous close, showing no significant gap, and is now trading near the upper end of today’s range ($70,500 – $71,187.14). Volatility today has been moderate, with price action showing some buying pressure after the open but facing consolidation as upward momentum meets overbought readings. There is a clear divergence between oscillators and broader momentum signals.

Downside risk prevails as breakout probability stays limited

For the next week, BTC is expected to trade between $70,900 and $71,700, normalizing the weekly range to reflect typical volatility and the current price. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a significant upward breakout, making a further downside move the more likely short-term scenario. The baseline view is for price to continue in a sideways corridor near current levels. A bullish scenario would require a strong break above $71,700, while a bearish setup would see the price fall below immediate support at $70,500, opening the way to deeper pullbacks.

Anton Kharitonov, leading analyst at Traders Union, sees current Bitcoin momentum as fragile despite holding above key short- and medium-term SMAs. He highlights persistent regulatory risks and unstable geopolitics as major obstacles to sustained upside. The sideways structure and mixed signals from indicators reinforce a defensive outlook. "As long as Bitcoin fails to convincingly break above $71,700, I remain cautious and would avoid aggressive long positions here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s price action remained highly sensitive to external geopolitical and commodity-related developments, with market sentiment shifting rapidly in response to regional news. The latest developments confirm that while near-term momentum is positive, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and evolving regulatory measures are keeping the risk of renewed volatility elevated—making $70,500 a critical support level to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.