Avalanche slides with price anchored near recent support at $8.42: weekly analysis

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Avalanche slips 2.05% this week

Highlights

Avalanche (AVAX) remains in a firm downtrend, trading significantly below key moving averages and facing persistent selling pressure.
Weekly technical indicators confirm sustained bearish momentum, with no signals suggesting a reversal or a buying opportunity in the near term.
AVAX is likely to continue range-bound between $8.42 support and $9.74 resistance, with a high risk of further declines if selling persists.

Institutional interest grows as derivatives and network expansion advance

CME Group’s decision to launch AVAX futures contracts represents a major milestone in institutional acceptance of Avalanche, giving investors access to regulated derivatives on the asset. The Avalanche Foundation’s investment in W3.io and Kite’s mainnet launch are expanding the network’s ecosystem, especially in the area of AI-driven financial solutions. Existing spot AVAX ETFs in the United States also provide increased access to AVAX for a broader range of investors. These ongoing initiatives reflect continued institutional interest and accumulation on the network.

Bearish weekly momentum as sellers dominate below key averages

Weekly technicals remain decisively bearish for AVAX, with price action anchored in the lower part of its recent range and volatility at 7.29%. All major moving averages (MA-20, MA-50, MA-200) are above current prices, marking them as key resistance points. Oscillators confirm continued selling pressure — the RSI on the weekly timeframe sits at 36.22, CCI reads –50.31, and Stochastic RSI remains overbought at 83.25, signaling overstretched conditions. Bearish momentum is reinforced as both MACD and ADX indicate prevailing downside, while negative Bull/Bear Power supports seller dominance; key support is at $8.42 and resistance at $9.74.

Sideways-to-lower bias expected as range holds and buy signals lack

For the next 7 days, AVAX is expected to trade between $8.42 and $9.74. Current weekly technicals show no buy signals, leaving a strong probability of sideways or downward price action and a less than 20% chance of a sustained rally. The baseline scenario anticipates continued consolidation within this range, limited by $9.74 resistance and anchored by $8.42 support. A bullish move requires a clear break above $9.74, but further testing of lower levels is more likely if seller momentum continues.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Avalanche (AVAX) ended the week down 2.05%, confirming persistent bearish pressure below all major moving averages. He observes that despite positive institutional developments like CME’s AVAX futures launch and ecosystem expansion, the price action remains anchored in a bearish range. Technicals show strong selling momentum, with oscillators and trend indicators all pointing lower. The range between $8.42 support and $9.74 resistance is likely to define price action in the coming week. Kharitonov believes the probability of a sustained rally remains very limited as downside risks remain dominant. "As long as AVAX stays capped by major resistance and shows no buy triggers, I expect another week of consolidation or weakness — I see no reason to trust the upside until $9.74 is broken convincingly."

Previously it was reported that Avalanche continued to exhibit persistent bearish momentum, driven by ongoing technical weakness despite increased institutional involvement. The current outlook reinforces this negative bias, with traders advised to monitor $8.42 as the pivotal support level that could determine the direction of the next major move.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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