Bitcoin trades in a tight $75K–$80K range after the Fed's April 29 decision to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, dashing hopes for quick liquidity boosts and capping upside momentum. BTC closed at $75,776, failing $80K resistance repeatedly and slipping below its 21-day moving average. Escalating Iran Strait tensions amplify risk-off flows, positioning BTC more like Nasdaq than a safe haven.

Volumes have plunged to 2023 lows with retail largely absent, leaving a thin market vulnerable to sharp swings—$80K holds $1.2B in shorts for potential squeeze on breakout. Yet bulls persist: surveys show ~75% view BTC undervalued, on-chain fear indicators easing, and ETF inflows hit $458M recently despite geopolitics.
Post-halving institutional demand via ETFs provides a floor, but macro rules: higher-for-longer rates and USD strength dominate. Scenarios include bullish push to $85–90K on dovish Fed/Nasdaq strength; bearish drop to $70–75K if hawkishness persists; or base range-hold awaiting data. Ultimately, BTC now mirrors liquidity and risk appetite—next catalyst from stocks/Fed, not crypto internals.
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