Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the $79,000–81,000 range after recovering from April lows and recently testing levels above $82,000. The main source of market support remains steady capital inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Since the beginning of May, investment activity in ETFs has accelerated again, while major funds including BlackRock and Fidelity continue increasing their BTC exposure. This has helped the market remain resilient despite elevated volatility and cautious investor sentiment.
Fed policy and inflation continue to limit upside potential
Additional pressure on the crypto market came from stronger-than-expected US PPI inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period. Rising US Treasury yields continue to reduce appetite for risk-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin. At the same time, the market is closely monitoring discussions around the CLARITY Act and broader digital asset regulation in the United States, as investors expect clearer jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC.
Declining supply supports the medium-term trend
Meanwhile, analysts continue to highlight the ongoing decline in Bitcoin reserves held on centralized exchanges. According to Glassnode, BTC supply on trading platforms remains near multi-year lows, signaling continued accumulation by long-term holders and institutional investors. Another supportive factor is the recent decline in mining difficulty, which temporarily improves miner profitability and reduces pressure from potential selling of newly mined coins.
Technical outlook and short-term forecast
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin maintains a neutral-to-bullish structure above the $78,000–79,000 support zone. Strong resistance remains located in the $82,000–83,000 area, with a breakout potentially opening the way toward the $87,000–90,000 range. However, yesterday’s decline below $79,000 may signal weakening bullish momentum and the risk of long-position liquidations.
At the same time, as already highlighted in Bitcoin holds above $80,000 as downside risks increase, the market remains highly sensitive to US macroeconomic data, ETF flow dynamics, and geopolitical risks related to the Middle East and the energy market. As long as BTC holds above key support levels, the medium-term bullish trend remains intact.
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