SHIB falls amid record low exchange reserves after large withdrawals: weekly forecast

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Shiba Inu Coin slips 7.92% this week

Highlights

SHIB remains under sustained bearish pressure, consistently trading below key moving averages across medium and long timeframes.
Momentum and trend indicators continue to signal seller dominance, with no technical evidence of an impending reversal.
A narrow consolidation is likely between $0.00000565 and $0.00000600, with a higher probability of further downside if support breaks.

Exchange outflows and regulatory advances drive sentiment this week

Shiba Inu saw exchange reserves reach a record low for 2026 following the withdrawal of over 374 billion tokens from exchanges, including a significant transfer of 134 billion SHIB from Binance to a private wallet. Shibarium, the project's layer-2 solution, surpassed one billion transactions, reflecting ongoing network engagement. In addition, US regulatory authorities classified SHIB as a digital commodity and Japan placed SHIB on its Green List, enhancing regulatory clarity and access to new exchange venues.

Bearish signals deepen as SHIB falters below all weekly technicals

Weekly technicals point to a firmly bearish backdrop, with SHIB trading beneath all its major weekly moving averages and the MA-20 serving as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators such as the MACD signal strong selling, while the ADX shows a weak trend. Weekly RSI and CCI both highlight selling pressure without clear oversold signals, and Stochastic RSI is neutral, suggesting no imminent reversal. Bull/Bear Power also indicates extended seller dominance, and weekly volatility remains elevated at 14.52%. Support is seen at $0.00000565, while resistance lies at $0.00000600.

Sideways consolidation expected as bearish momentum dominates next week

Over the next 7 days, SHIB is likely to consolidate within the $0.00000565 to $0.00000600 range based on weak technical signals and persistent bearish momentum on the weekly chart. The probability of an upside move remains low, with less than a 20% chance unless a decisive break above $0.00000600 occurs. Baseline expectations anticipate continued sideways action, with a potential bearish scenario if price closes below $0.00000565, signaling further downside risk.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Shiba Inu Coin saw clear bearish pressure this week, with price closing well below all major weekly moving averages. He sees sentiment dampened by persistent technical weakness, even as notable token outflows and regulatory developments brought some attention to the project. No clear reversal signals are present — momentum and trend indicators stay defensive, and sideways movement dominates. Only a decisive move above $0.00000600 would begin to challenge the bearish setup. "With volatility high and buyers on the sidelines, I expect SHIB to remain rangebound between $0.00000565 and $0.00000600 — any breach of these boundaries is likely to create the next opportunity."

Earlier, analysts noted that Shiba Inu remained entrenched in a bearish trend, with sellers controlling price action and little evidence of a breakout. The latest developments strengthen this outlook, as persistent downside momentum amid tightening regulatory clarity and shrinking exchange reserves maintain a cautious scenario, with a close below $0.00000565 posing potential for further declines.

Source of Data: SHIB Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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