Bitcoin is consolidating around the $77,000–$77,800 range after a prolonged correction. The key support level remains at $76,000 — holding this level is critical to prevent a further decline toward $71,300–$70,000.
For a trend reversal, BTC needs to break and hold above $77,800–$80,000, which would open the way for growth toward $82,000–$84,000.
Institutional outflows and macroeconomic pressure
Institutional selling continues, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.26 billion in outflows. Analysts describe this as both a potential buying signal and evidence of capital rotation into other assets. The main pressure comes from the Fed’s hawkish stance, persistently high interest rates, and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which could eventually trigger a new Bitcoin supercycle but are currently limiting upside momentum. If PCE inflation comes in above the 3.2% forecast, downside pressure on BTC is likely to intensify.
Key events and technical signals
A wallet dating back to the Satoshi Nakamoto era moved 2,650 BTC ($203 million) to OTC platforms FalconX and Cumberland, causing concern across the market. Meanwhile, the SEC approved the listing of Bitcoin index options on the PHLX/Nasdaq exchange, expanding institutional trading instruments. CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin demand has fallen to its most bearish level of 2026, while miner behavior still does not confirm a market bottom. Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 in terms of returns.
Outlook for the coming weeks
If the market environment remains neutral and no major negative catalysts emerge (such as escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or broader geopolitical tensions), BTC could reach $82,000–$84,000 by the end of May. However, the probability of another drop toward $70,300–$71,000 remains elevated due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, as I previously mentioned in Bitcoin rebounds after the sell-off. The critical factors this week will be U.S. PCE inflation data and the GDP revision, both of which are likely to determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
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