Avalanche price prediction: $7.01 resistance in focus as AVAX advances 4.48%

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Avalanche gains 4.48% today on Nasdaq debut

Highlights

Avalanche Treasury Co. began trading on Nasdaq under AVAT, offering regulated equity exposure to approximately 15 million AVAX tokens.
Recent organizational changes at Avalanche Foundation, including a new COO, signal a focus on ecosystem repositioning amid declining DeFi activity and liquidations.
AVAX shows short-term bullish momentum but faces divergent signals, with likely price consolidation between $5.72 and $7.01 over the next few days.

Public trading debut and DeFi contraction reshape investor flows

Avalanche Treasury Co., the institutional entity that holds about 15 million AVAX tokens, has debuted for public trading on Nasdaq under the ticker AVAT, enabling investors to gain indirect exposure to Avalanche through a regulated equity instrument. This development provides a new avenue for public market participation, which can increase liquidity and broaden the token’s visibility among a wider investor base. Meanwhile, recent organizational changes at the Avalanche Foundation, highlighted by the appointment of Marta Szlińska as Chief Operating Officer, have placed additional focus on strategic development efforts. Secondary market data shows a continued contraction in Avalanche’s DeFi activity and notable liquidations, reflecting a period of significant repositioning across the protocol’s ecosystem.

Overextension risks as price holds support amid mixed momentum

Technically, AVAX/USD is trading above the MA-20 at $6.58 and MA-50 at $6.55 on the hourly chart, while remaining considerably below the daily MA-200 at $10.52. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $6.50 as a key support level for the session. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD is showing a Buy signal, ADX remains Neutral, and the RSI is at 53.89, also indicating a Buy bias. In contrast, the Stoch RSI suggests a Strong Sell, and CCI readings indicate overbought conditions, with BBP on Buy and the Awesome Oscillator supporting the current intraday upward movement. The combination of firm price action and high volatility, alongside divergent oscillator readings, points to potential overextension in the short term.

Breakout odds favor bulls as volatility defines short-term range

In the short term (next 2-3 days), AVAX is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band of $5.72 to $7.01. The likelihood for an upward breakout is estimated at 67%, while a downward scenario carries a 33% probability. The baseline scenario remains range-trading, with a move above resistance opening the way for a test of the upper boundary, while a drop below immediate support at $6.50 could prompt a retest of the recent lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent Nasdaq listing of Avalanche Treasury Co. as a positive shift for the token’s institutional profile, but notes the contraction in DeFi activity and mixed technical momentum. He believes the market is in a fragile repositioning phase, with recent volatility and divergent signals reinforcing a cautious stance. Short-term risk remains elevated as AVAX trades above support but fails to regain longer-term averages. "Base case remains range-bound trading between $5.72 and $7.01 — until $7.01 is broken on volume, I am staying defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche was experiencing sustained bearish momentum due to persistent negative sentiment and intensified selling pressure across its ecosystem. The current rebound above key short-term averages and the launch of Avalanche Treasury Co. on Nasdaq introduce new liquidity dynamics, making the upper boundary of $7.01 a critical area to monitor for a potential shift in trend.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.