AVAX slides as selling pressure persists below major moving averages: weekly outlook

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Avalanche drops 14.75% this week

Highlights

AVAX trades in a firmly bearish trend, remaining below key moving averages and showing no signs of reversal.
Momentum and volatility indicators confirm dominant selling pressure, with weekly losses of 14.75% and oversold conditions across the board.
Expected price action is sideways in a $6.35–$7.15 range, with a higher probability of further downside than a meaningful recovery.

Persistent outflows and negative sentiment deepen after DeFi exploit and liquidations

Avalanche suffered from heightened selling pressure following a major exploit on Yeti Finance, resulting in over $120 million in losses. The asset also faced increased negative sentiment as total value locked in its DeFi protocols dropped more than 30% during the last quarter, and on-chain activity reached multi-month lows. Derivatives markets showed significant long liquidations and negative funding rates. The Avalanche Foundation announced the appointment of Marta Szlińska as its new Chief Operating Officer, reflecting a continued push for operational and ecosystem growth.

Bearish momentum confirmed as technical indicators signal oversold conditions this week

Technical analysis on the weekly timeframe highlights a dominant bearish trend. AVAX remains far below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with dynamic resistance near $8.95. Weekly momentum indicators reinforce this downtrend: MACD provides a strong sell signal, ADX confirms trend strength, and both RSI (29.98) and Stochastic RSI signal deep oversold conditions. The Commodity Channel Index and Bull/Bear Power are also firmly negative, reflecting the dominance of sellers, while weekly volatility is elevated at 24.12%. AVAX continues to weaken from its weekly highs with strong bearish momentum.

Sideways movement likely as bears hold control and upward reversal odds stay low

For the next 7 days, AVAX is expected to remain within the $6.35 to $7.15 range, with bears maintaining control. The probability of a significant upward reversal is very low, under 20%, as no major weekly indicators signal a buy. The baseline scenario is for AVAX to trade sideways in a narrow corridor, but a break below $6.35 could test new lows with continued seller pressure. Alternatively, a weekly close above $7.15 would be an early sign of a recovery attempt, targeting resistance, though this outcome appears unlikely given current signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche was experiencing sustained bearish momentum despite ongoing network activity and DeFi integration. The current analysis strengthens this view with recent evidence of intensified selling after a major exploit and sharply declining on-chain metrics, placing heightened focus on downside risks if support at $6.35 fails to hold in the week ahead.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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