Galaxy Research cuts Clarity Act passage odds as Senate calendar tightens

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Clarity Act passage odds fall

Highlights

Galaxy Research lowered Clarity Act passage odds to 50-50 for 2026, citing a tighter Senate calendar and no scheduled floor date.
The bill requires a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, debate, amendments, and subsequent House action, with Senate floor time expected by early July.
President Donald Trump threatened to withhold support for a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, complicating the Senate's legislative timetable and impacting the Clarity Act's prospects.

Senate timing pressure reshapes bill outlook

The Block reported that Galaxy Research reduced its estimate for Clarity Act passage in 2026 to 50-50, with Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, saying the downgrade reflects a tighter Senate calendar rather than changes to the bill itself.

Thorn wrote in a Friday post that no floor date has been set and no motion to proceed has been scheduled after Galaxy already lowered its odds to 60% on June 5. He said the bill still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process and then House action on whatever the Senate produces.

He added that Senate Majority Leader Thune should announce floor time by early July at the latest. Without that scheduling step, Thorn said the path could slip to September, when midterm political dynamics would make controversial votes harder to place on the calendar.

Crypto market structure stakes remain high

Thorn also said President Donald Trump complicated the measure's prospects after warning last week that he would withhold his signature from a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, adding further pressure to the Senate's legislative timetable.

Even so, Galaxy maintains that the Clarity Act still has a meaningful chance of enactment this year. A Senate aide told The Block last week that the measure ranks high on the chamber's July agenda, with Democrats and Republicans expected to treat it as a top priority when the Senate returns.

Senators have spent months negotiating the crypto market structure bill. The legislation is intended to split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while giving the latter primary authority over most crypto assets.

Trump’s expanding second-term legal and investigative push against critics has broadened across law enforcement, regulators and electoral channels, adding fresh uncertainty for U.S. institutions and political rivals. We also noted earlier how the Justice Department sought court orders to compel several states to hand over years of SNAP applicant data, framing the effort as part of a wider drive to tighten federal oversight and enforcement. Together, these developments underscore how intensifying political pressure can spill into agency priorities and congressional calendars.

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