TRX edges down with MACD showing strong bullish momentum: weekly forecast

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Tron slips 2.98% this week

Highlights

TRX is stabilizing above key medium-term support, maintaining a bullish long-term trend despite a recent decline.
Weekly momentum indicators are mixed, with bullish MACD and buy signals but conflicting overbought/oversold readings.
TRX is expected to trade between $0.307 and $0.337 this week, with a 75% probability of sideways-to-upward movement.

Large reserve build and legal clarity boost sentiment this week

Tron Inc. increased its TRX reserves by approximately 153,000–154,555 tokens, boosting total holdings to over 702.4 million. The TRON network’s robust processing of high stablecoin (USDT) volumes underscores its continuing importance for stablecoin settlements. Additionally, the permanent dismissal of the legal case against TRON founder Justin Sun in March 2026 has removed a significant source of regulatory uncertainty for the project.

Mixed technical signals temper bullish weekly momentum

On the weekly chart, TRX’s price holds just above its MA-20 and MA-50, with dynamic support reinforced by the MA-200. Main weekly support is found at $0.307, with resistance near $0.337. The RSI on the weekly timeframe gives a buy signal, while the MACD indicates strong bullish momentum; the Stochastic RSI highlights oversold conditions, and CCI remains neutral. The ADX shows moderate buying strength, though the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, suggesting that directional conviction remains limited.

Sideways trading expected as breakout risk remains elevated

For the next 7 days, TRX is expected to trade within a range of $0.307 to $0.337 as weekly indicators point to a balanced outlook. The probability of an upward move is estimated at 75%, with 3 out of 4 key signals issuing Buy or Strong Buy calls; should price break above $0.337, a move toward higher resistance levels could follow. Conversely, a drop below $0.307 would shift the bias bearish, bringing focus to dynamic support zones. The baseline scenario favors sideways consolidation within established technical boundaries, pending a decisive shift in momentum.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, believes TRX showed medium-term resilience this week, holding above its MA-20 and MA-50 despite a 2.98% decline. He observes that stablecoin activity and the removal of regulatory overhang provide fundamental support, while technical signals are mixed, keeping the asset range-bound. Mehta sees a balanced outlook with a 75% probability of upside, yet expects price to consolidate between $0.307 and $0.337 unless momentum meaningfully shifts. "I’m watching for a decisive move above $0.337 or below $0.307, as that break could offer the first real directional cue of the week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tron was exhibiting bullish momentum on sustained network growth and supportive market sentiment. This latest analysis finds the medium-term outlook still constructive, but highlights elevated volatility and underscores $0.307 as a critical support level whose breach could swiftly alter the prevailing bias.

Source of Data: TRX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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