Ethereum retreats amid bearish momentum from weak RSI and MACD readings: weekly review

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Ethereum falls 2.94% this week

Highlights

Ethereum remains entrenched in a bearish trend, consistently trading below key moving averages across multiple timeframes.
Momentum and volatility indicators signal continued seller dominance, with oversold readings on oscillators and a 2.94% weekly decline.
Expect Ethereum to consolidate within the $1,425–$1,725 range over the next week, with further downside more probable than a recovery.

Institutional outflows and whale accumulation shape Ethereum sentiment this week

Institutional outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs persisted, with net redemptions reaching $8 million on June 29, 2026 and several consecutive weeks of withdrawals. Meanwhile, large holders increased accumulation, as seen in a positive 30-day whale address change and a net withdrawal of about 500,000 ETH from exchanges in mid-June. Corporate treasuries like Sharplink and BitMine added to their ETH holdings, with Sharplink purchasing 10,000 ETH and surpassing 886,000 ETH overall. Progress continues on the network side, with new devnets launched, post-quantum key research advancing, and the July 1, 2026 shutdown of Polygon zkEVM Mainnet Beta affecting asset withdrawals.

Deeply oversold signals and strong resistance dominate weekly technical picture

The weekly technical landscape for Ethereum remains bearish. The price stays well below the weekly MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun ($2,454.29) also above current levels, confirming resistance overhead. Key oscillators such as RSI (30.13), Stochastic RSI (0.00), and CCI (–161.22) reflect deeply oversold readings, while the MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator all show sustained downside momentum. Weekly volatility registered at 9.82%, leaving the token mid-range between immediate support and resistance levels.

Range-bound outlook expected as bearish momentum limits upside risk next week

Over the next 7 days, Ethereum is expected to trade in a broad consolidation band between $1,425 and $1,725, with momentum signals and moving averages still suggesting a high likelihood of sideways-to-lower price action. The probability of a material upside move remains low (less than 20%) without a strong recovery above $1,725. A breakout beneath $1,425 would further confirm downside risk, while a sustained move above $1,725 could open the door for a reversal, though this scenario is currently unlikely based on weekly indicators.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum struggling to recover this week after a clear rejection from all major moving averages and entrenched bearish momentum. He notes that persistent outflows from U.S. spot ETH ETFs and a lack of institutional support reinforce selling pressure, despite some positive accumulation by large holders. Technical signals remain negative, with deeply oversold oscillators but no evidence of a reversal. Kharitonov believes price action is likely to stay within the $1,425–$1,725 band, with the probability of a meaningful rebound below 20% while the token stays under $1,725. If support at $1,425 fails, further downside is likely. "With both sentiment and technical momentum against Ethereum this week, I see no sustainable upside until we reclaim at least $1,725."

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum was exhibiting relative resilience but remained under prolonged bearish pressure amid persistent ETF outflows and limited institutional interest. The latest market developments reinforce this cautious outlook, and traders should closely monitor the $1,425 support zone as a decisive break below it could accelerate downside momentum in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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