Bitcoin and ether options keep defensive bias as crypto rebound faces skepticism

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Bitcoin, ether options, defensive bias

Highlights

Bitcoin's one-week 25-delta put-call skew remains elevated near 16%, signaling lingering defensive sentiment despite a recent market bounce.
Options market activity, including a large long call condor targeting $66,000–$68,000 BTC on July 17 expiry, points to expectations for contained price moves.
Thinner holiday liquidity and ether-bitcoin ratio approaching its 100-day simple moving average raise the risk of amplified crypto price swings and potential ether outperformance.

Options pricing points to limited conviction

As reported by CoinDesk, positioning in Deribit-listed bitcoin and ether options continues to reflect lingering concern about further declines despite the recent market bounce.

Bitcoin's one-week 25-delta put-call skew stands near 16%, indicating puts still command a notable volatility premium over calls. That reading is down from about 25% 10 days earlier, based on Velo data, but it remains elevated. One-, three-, and six-month skews also show put premiums of roughly 10% or more, with ether showing a similar pattern.

The structure of those trades suggests investors are reducing some hedges rather than turning outright bullish. Demand for protection against price weakness remains intact even as signs emerge that BTC long-term holders and exchange-traded fund investors are returning to accumulation.

Block activity in the options market also points to expectations for contained price moves rather than a strong breakout. Data from Laevitas highlights a large long call condor in bitcoin, using July 17 expiry calls at $64,000 and $70,000 against short calls at $66,000 and $68,000, a strategy that performs best if BTC ends up between $66,000 and $68,000 on expiry.

Holiday liquidity may amplify price swings

Trading conditions may become less stable heading into the extended U.S. Independence Day weekend because U.S. markets are closed Friday. Thinner liquidity often increases the risk of abrupt and erratic moves, particularly in crypto markets that continue to trade while traditional financial venues shut.

The broader cross-asset backdrop also remains relevant for digital assets. CoinDesk notes that the ether-bitcoin ratio is climbing toward its 100-day simple moving average, a level that has capped previous recovery attempts since December. If ether establishes itself above that threshold, it could strengthen the case for a relative bottom and a more durable shift in momentum toward ether.

Our earlier coverage of the U.S. stock market week ahead focused on how investors were bracing for the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the first wave of major earnings as key signals for rates, inflation, and demand. We also noted that tech-led gains were being tested by renewed volatility and questions about market breadth, with shifting rate expectations remaining a central risk for valuations.

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