+2.56% for Bitcoin as softer US jobs data lift BTC

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Bitcoin gains 2.56% today to $61,469

Highlights

Bitcoin demand is rising as soft U.S. jobs data on July 2 diminished expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Improved liquidity and appetite for risk assets are supporting current BTC buying, with monetary policy shifts as the main catalyst.
BTC/USD is trading with short- and medium-term bullish momentum, projected to stay between $59,501 and $63,436 over the next few days amid mixed technical signals.

Fed rate outlook shift propels risk appetite and bitcoin demand

Bitcoin is drawing support from a shift in U.S. monetary policy expectations, as weaker-than-expected jobs data on July 2, 2026 lessened the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, according to Coingape. This easing in rate hike expectations increases market liquidity and appetite for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies, helping lift demand for BTC. Market participants are responding to this macroeconomic trigger as the main catalyst fueling buying interest in the current session.

Mixed momentum signals as overbought conditions test uptrend

On the technical front, BTC/USD is holding above the 20-period ($59,992) and 50-period ($60,121) moving averages on the H4 chart while remaining below the 200-period daily moving average ($75,114). Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $60,000. Momentum signals are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Average Directional Index (ADX), and Awesome Oscillator indicate ongoing buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.19, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Stochastic RSI, and Bull/Bear Power all show overbought conditions. Despite constructive intraday price action, the stretch in short-term oscillators calls for vigilance against potential reversals.

Rangebound movement likely amid breakout risk and market uncertainty

Looking ahead to the next two to three trading days, BTC/USD is projected to consolidate within a typical volatility range of $59,501 to $63,436, with a 55% probability favoring an upside breakout. A sustained move above $63,436 would signal a bullish scenario and could lead to further gains, while a bearish move is likely if support at $59,501 gives way. The base case calls for continued short-term consolidation amid heightened directional uncertainty.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees constructive sentiment for Bitcoin as macroeconomic trends support demand. He highlights that weaker U.S. jobs data has helped ease expectations for immediate rate hikes, favoring liquidity flows into risk assets like BTC. Momentum is building, but overbought signals caution against chasing moves. He expects short-term consolidation, with a bullish breakout likely if resistance at $63,436 is cleared. "With the backdrop of softer monetary policy and active buying interest, I believe Bitcoin is well-positioned for further gains if key resistance levels fall."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was consolidating within a defined range, with momentum indicators and external macro factors contributing to short-term direction. The current backdrop of shifting U.S. rate hike expectations introduces a fresh macro catalyst, making sustained movement above the $63,436 resistance a potential harbinger of renewed bullish momentum in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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