Bitcoin edges lower as US Bitcoin reserve plan faces agency dispute

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Bitcoin slides 0.79% to $62,626 today

Highlights

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust led a $265.7 million net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, reversing prior outflows and boosting institutional demand.
Regulatory uncertainty persists as the U.S. government delays action on a proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve and control of $21.1 billion in seized BTC remains unsettled.
Bitcoin trades in a $60,340 to $66,898 range with mixed technical signals and a slightly increased probability of a short-term downside move.

Institutional inflows return as regulatory uncertainty persists

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded a $209.4 million inflow on July 7, 2026, contributing to $265.7 million in net inflows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs after a prolonged period of outflows, according to Crypto. These sizable institutional inflows mark a return of capital to the U.S. ETF segment, expanding administered Bitcoin holdings and enhancing market liquidity, which could improve near-term demand dynamics. Meanwhile, the U.S. government's plan for a strategic Bitcoin reserve remains stalled, as an ongoing dispute between Treasury and Commerce over the custody of roughly 328,372 BTC (worth about $21.1 billion) leaves a major regulatory uncertainty unresolved, according to Bitcoinfoundation. The market continues to digest these developments amidst a backdrop of ongoing institutional interest tempered by unresolved public sector policy.

Mixed momentum as BTC tests support above multi-timeframe averages

BTC has recently crossed below the 20-period moving average and is now hovering just above the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, while remaining well below the 200-period moving average on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $63,003, with range support around $60,340. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) currently signals a strong buy, but the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, indicating that trend strength is uncertain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.38 and points to a potential buying opportunity, while the Stochastic RSI is oversold. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicates overbought conditions, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, reflecting divergence across momentum signals in the current setup.

Downside bias as consolidation range narrows near key resistance

For the next two to three trading days, BTC is likely to consolidate within a typical volatility band, with the expected range between $60,340 and $66,898. The probability of a downside move is slightly higher at 52%, compared to a 48% chance of an upward break. A bullish scenario unfolds if price breaks and holds above the immediate $63,003 resistance, while a bearish scenario develops if the lower end of the range near $60,340 is breached.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin caught between renewed institutional demand and unresolved risk from U.S. government custody debates. He believes technical momentum signals and liquidity inflows are offset by weak trend conviction and continuing regulatory uncertainty. Tactical bias remains cautious until $63,003 is reclaimed or $60,340 fails. "Until we see a decisive break above $63,003, short-term positions should stay defensive and risk-managed."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was experiencing persistent selling pressure and downside momentum amid conflicting flows between institutional investors and corporate sales. The latest resurgence in ETF inflows and mixed technical readings add nuance to the prior outlook, making the $63,003 resistance level a pivotal threshold to watch for a potential reversal or renewed weakness in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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