Bitcoin edges higher after treasury sales, still pressured by oversold signals: weekly analysis

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Bitcoin rises 5.27% this week

Highlights

Bitcoin remains under selling pressure, trading below key medium- and long-term moving averages with bearish technical signals prevailing.
Momentum indicators confirm oversold conditions and reinforce the likelihood of continued downward price movement in the short term.
The expected trading range for the next week is $56,700 to $66,100, with a higher probability of a decline than a breakout.

Treasury sales and regulatory shifts drive institutional flows this week

Strategy executed a notable treasury action between June 29 and July 5, selling 3,588 BTC to raise $216 million for preferred stock dividend payments and increasing its USD reserves to $2.55 billion. The company's on-chain transactions also included a transfer of 513 BTC while maintaining a core holding of over 843,000 BTC. Meanwhile, the status of the US government's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve remains unresolved due to ongoing interagency oversight disputes, and the US SEC announced plans to update regulations impacting custody, trading platforms, and broker-dealers, alongside further institutional activity in Bitcoin ETFs.

Bearish momentum sustains as technicals hover near long-term supports

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin trades below key moving averages: the price is under both the 20-week ($69,941.76) and 50-week ($87,509.67) averages, and sits just under the 200-week ($62,869.99). Technical indicators remain unfavorable as the weekly MACD and ADX maintain bearish momentum, with the RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all signaling oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power also highlights robust selling dynamics. Key support is at the MA-200 and the recent weekly low near $56,700, while resistance is seen at the MA-20 and around $66,100.

Consolidation range favored as bearish signals temper upside risks this week

Over the next seven days, Bitcoin is expected to trade between $56,700 and $66,100, with prevailing bearish weekly signals suggesting a stronger likelihood of downward or sideways movement. The baseline scenario is for consolidation within this range, aided by lingering oversold conditions but hindered by persistent negative momentum. A bullish turn remains unlikely unless technicals improve and sentiment shifts sharply, in which case a test of resistance near $66,100 could unfold. A break below support increases the risk of further declines toward the lower end of the range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees the past week’s recovery in Bitcoin as a constructive sign, even as the price struggled to reclaim key moving averages. He points out that treasury actions and regulatory headlines continue to shape sentiment, while strong institutional presence and evolving ETF activity support the longer-term case. Though technical momentum remains bearish and consolidation is likely within the $56,700–$66,100 range, Karapetjanc believes oversold conditions may soon attract renewed buying. For the upcoming week, he expects Bitcoin to hold dynamic support unless bearish pressure intensifies. "I see the market offering tactical opportunities as long as core support holds, with improving sentiment to potentially trigger a push toward resistance around $66,100."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions and waning institutional flows had kept Bitcoin under sustained bearish pressure. Recent developments—highlighted by significant treasury selling and persistent negative momentum across key technical indicators—underscore the need to monitor support near the MA-200, as a decisive move below this level could increase the risk of further downside in the coming week.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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