Solana technical analysis: Support test amid continued selloff

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Solana drops 1.82% to $76.42 today

Highlights

Morgan Stanley amended its Solana ETF SEC filings to include a 0.14% management fee and staking features, reflecting ongoing institutional interest but with no launch date set.
Solana Music prepares to launch a blockchain-based distribution platform, potentially increasing Solana network utility and developer activity despite prevailing market weakness.
SOL/USD is under pronounced selling pressure, trading below major averages with indicators collectively signaling a high likelihood of further declines to $74.75–$78.14 in the near term.

Institutional filings and product launches as market pressure persists

Morgan Stanley has amended its SEC filings for a proposed Solana ETF, outlining a 0.14% annual management fee, staking components, and the use of institutional custody, according to Gncrypto. While this signals ongoing institutional interest, the filings remain inactive and no launch date has been announced, limiting immediate effects on market participation. Separately, Cryptobriefing reported that Solana Music is preparing to launch a blockchain-based music distribution platform, which could expand the network's real-world application and developer activity — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold readings confirm persistent bearish momentum below resistance

On the hourly chart, SOL is trading below the 20-period moving average at $77.7 and the 50-period moving average at $78.09. On the daily timeframe, it remains under the 200-period moving average at $92.02. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $77.27. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37.64, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also indicates oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator are both on Sell signals, whereas the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Stochastic RSI are neutral. Bull/Bear Power is oversold, pointing to dominance by sellers and confirming persistent downward momentum.

Consolidation forecast as breakout odds diminish, downside risk persists

Over the next two to three sessions, the price of SOL is expected to fluctuate within a range of $74.75 to $78.14, representing a volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of an upward breakout is rated as very low, while the risk of further downside remains high. The base scenario anticipates that price will consolidate within this corridor. Should a bullish move occur, it would require a sustained break above the $77.27 resistance; further downside would be confirmed by a drop below the $74.75 support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the amended Solana ETF filings from Morgan Stanley as a strong signal of institutional interest. He notes that product launches and sector innovation, like the upcoming Solana Music platform, support long-term ecosystem growth. Despite current downward momentum and near-term resistance at $77.27, underlying sentiment remains constructive with these developments on the horizon. "If institutional adoption continues and new use cases roll out, SOL's recovery potential improves despite current price weakness."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was facing persistent downside pressure due to weak technicals and negative sentiment following security concerns. The current market update reinforces this bearish outlook, as downward momentum remains intact and traders should monitor the $74.75 support for signs of increased volatility if breached.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.