Oversold conditions limit further selling. Can HYPE avoid deeper losses?

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Hyperliquid drops 11.12% to $59.28

Highlights

Hyperion DeFi allocated 500,000 HYPE tokens via HIP-3 to enhance institutional liquidity and trading on Hyperliquid, including equity and revenue rights for Skew Technologies.
HYPE's addition to the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) expanded investor access as Hyperliquid perpetual market open interest hit a record $11.07 billion.
HYPE/USD faces dominant short-term bearish momentum with an expected trading range of $57.4 to $61.16 and limited likelihood of upward reversal.

Liquidity allocation and index inclusion as institutional flows intensify

Hyperion DeFi announced the deployment of 500,000 HYPE tokens through its HIP-3 framework to support institutional participation in perpetual markets on the Hyperliquid platform, in an arrangement that also granted equity and revenue rights in Skew Technologies, according to Cryptonomist. This direct capital infusion is aimed at deepening liquidity and incentivizing institutional trading activity. In parallel, HYPE's addition to the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) following a rebalancing broadened its visibility and ETF-based investor access, while open interest on the Hyperliquid platform reached a record $11.07 billion on July 13, 2026, with HIP-3 now driving about half of all perpetual volume as reported by Memeburn. Despite these developments, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold momentum signals as price tests layered technical resistance

On the hourly chart, HYPE/USD remains below the MA-20 at $62.75 and the MA-50 at $65.41, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $62.91 providing immediate resistance and the daily MA-200 at $43.18 acting as longer-term support. Key momentum indicators are bearish: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) show a clear sell bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers 20.55, and both Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power indicate oversold conditions amid intraday seller dominance. The Stochastic RSI is neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator also supports a negative trend, though the combination of neutral and extremely oversold readings hint at possible momentum exhaustion, with no confirmation of a reversal so far.

Downside risk elevated as breakout odds remain subdued

In the short term, HYPE/USD is expected to trade within a volatility band from $57.4 to $61.16 over the next 2–3 days. The likelihood of an upward breakout is low, with less than 20% probability, while further downside below the current range holds a high probability of more than 80%. The base scenario calls for sideways consolidation between support and resistance, with a sustained bullish reversal contingent on a close above the $62.91 resistance, while failure to hold above $57.4 could trigger additional weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that recent institutional initiatives and ETF inclusion have yet to spark a positive price reaction in HYPE. He sees dominant selling pressure confirmed by technicals, with oversold momentum yet to produce signs of reversal. Base scenario remains a sideways range until a decisive breakout above $62.91. "Without a clear catalyst or a reclaim of resistance, I remain cautious and see further downside as the path of least resistance."

Earlier, analysts noted that Hyperliquid was under persistent selling pressure despite institutional involvement and product expansion initiatives. The continued decline alongside outsized open interest and ETF inclusion underscores the dominance of bearish momentum, making the $57.4 support level crucial to monitor for signs of further downside or potential stabilization.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.