Stellar slips as MACD signals persistent bearish momentum: weekly outlook

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Stellar slips 3.01% this week

Highlights

XLM is experiencing sustained downside pressure, with price action situated near the lower end of its weekly range.
Momentum indicators show a bearish trend with only mild buying interest, while volatility remains elevated at 8.88%.
Technical analysis projects a sideways to bearish outlook, with likely trading between $0.172 support and $0.228 resistance and only a 25% chance of a bullish reversal next week.

MoneyGram validator status and infrastructure focus lift network sentiment

Recent network developments highlight MoneyGram's designation as a Tier 1 validator, enhancing Stellar's security and decentralization. The network continues to focus on blockchain infrastructure for institutional asset tokenization, though recent partnerships with DTCC have centered on the Stellar network rather than directly on XLM. Broader activities in low-cost value transfers and digital asset issuance remain ongoing.

Mixed weekly momentum as bearish signals persist below key averages

Weekly technical analysis shows XLM closed above the MA-20 but remains well below the MA-50 and almost level with the MA-200, underlining medium- and long-term weakness. Weekly momentum signals are mixed — the MACD signals a strong bearish trend, the ADX at 22 reflects moderate trend strength, and major oscillators including RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI indicate neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power is slightly positive, pointing to some buyer presence amid prevailing bearishness. Support sits at $0.172, with resistance at $0.228.

Limited upside risk with sideways bias expected for the coming week

For the next seven days, XLM is likely to experience sideways movement within a range of $0.1723 to $0.2275. With only one out of four key weekly indicators signaling a positive outlook, the probability of a bullish reversal remains low at 25%. If XLM rises above $0.228, a short-term rebound may occur, while a drop below $0.172 could amplify further downside pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees ongoing weakness in Stellar (XLM) this week. The coin remains stuck below key resistance at $0.2396, with price action hugging the MA-200. Medium- and long-term technicals continue to favor sellers despite MoneyGram’s network developments. Most momentum signals point to a bearish picture, while buyer presence is only mildly felt. This week, Kharitonov believes sideways movement between $0.1723 and $0.2275 is the base case, with low probability for a bullish breakout. "As long as XLM remains capped below $0.228, I am not expecting meaningful recovery this week."

Earlier, analysts noted a shift toward buyer control in Stellar, driven by network upgrades and strong technical indicators. However, the latest multi-week weakness and dominant bearish momentum suggest that traders should watch for a potential breakdown below $0.172, which could mark a notable shift in market sentiment.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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