Stellar trades below MA-50 amid persistent seller pressure: weekly analysis

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Stellar drops 4.83% this week

Highlights

XLM remains under medium- and long-term bearish pressure, trading just above long-term support at $0.1830.
Indicators signal weak momentum and a steady downtrend, with oscillators turning bearish and a strong downside MACD bias.
For the next week, XLM is expected to move within a $0.170 to $0.210 range, with a 75% likelihood of downward movement.

Protocol 27 upgrade sparks volume surge and institutional adoption this week

Stellar saw a sharp increase in daily trading volume to $873 million following the implementation of its Protocol 27 upgrade, called Zipper, on the mainnet. This update brings advanced authentication features and address-bound smart contract credentials, aiming to boost security and mainstream adoption of non-custodial solutions. The protocol upgrade was accompanied by a fourfold year-over-year rise in the real-world asset market capitalization to around $3.5 billion, driven by new adoption from major financial institutions and updated RWA frameworks.

Weekly indicators reinforce weak momentum amid narrow trading range

On the weekly timeframe, XLM is positioned just above its 20-week ($0.1748) and 200-week ($0.1830) moving averages, but below the 50-week ($0.2439) MA, maintaining a lower weekly trading range. Technical indicators reflect a weak momentum: the weekly MACD signals a strong downside bias, while the ADX points to only a modest positive trend. Oscillators, including the RSI and Stochastic RSI, continue to point lower and support a bearish outlook, while the CCI remains neutral; the Bull/Bear Power indicator shows slight buyer strength but does not negate the overall downward trend.

Range-bound outlook persists as downside risk outweighs bull case

For the coming 7 days, XLM is expected to trade within a range of $0.170 to $0.210 based on current weekly volatility and trends. The probability of a further decline remains elevated, with about a 75% chance of a move lower and only a 25% chance for an upward push, as just one of the four key weekly indicators (ADX) supports a bullish case. Baseline expectations are for the price to consolidate within the current sideways corridor. A break above $0.210 would open up a bullish scenario, while a drop below $0.170 would indicate renewed selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees this week’s price action in Stellar (XLM) as constructive despite the ongoing pullback. He highlights the successful Protocol 27 upgrade and rising real-world asset adoption as strengthening the fundamental outlook. While sellers have dominated the medium-term trend, key support levels are holding and institutional interest is clearly growing. With larger transaction volume and an upgrade-driven narrative, tactical opportunities for buyers remain present in the current range. "As long as XLM remains above $0.170, I see every consolidation as a chance for further upside—protocol improvements and market adoption keep the bullish structure intact."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite ongoing ecosystem innovation and institutional adoption, technical headwinds continued to weigh on Stellar’s price performance. With the Protocol 27 upgrade now live and real-world asset growth accelerating, traders should closely monitor whether elevated volatility around the $0.170 level triggers a decisive move in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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