Bitcoin stabilizes as ETF inflows return despite escalating U.S.-Iran conflict

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Bitcoin stabilizes as ETF inflows return despite escalating U.S.-Iran conflict

Geopolitical tensions limit risk appetite

The military conflict between the United States and Iran remains one of the main sources of uncertainty across global financial markets. Higher oil prices, renewed concerns over inflation, and elevated volatility have reduced demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Even so, Bitcoin has demonstrated greater resilience than during previous rounds of Middle East escalation, holding above key support despite the deterioration in geopolitical conditions.

Softer inflation supports long-term outlook

Recent U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations that underlying price pressures continue to moderate, although the rise in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Investors are now focused on whether the Fed will maintain a cautious stance while monitoring the inflationary impact of higher crude prices. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, liquidity expectations, and broader risk sentiment, making macroeconomic releases the primary catalyst for the next major move.

Technical picture remains constructive above support

The daily chart shows Bitcoin consolidating after rebounding from recent lows, with buyers continuing to defend an important support zone. Although the price remains below key resistance, selling pressure appears less aggressive than earlier this month. A decisive recovery above nearby resistance would be needed to strengthen the bullish outlook. Until then, range-bound trading remains the most likely scenario, while renewed ETF inflows continue to improve the medium-term fundamental backdrop. At the same time, a failure to hold current support could reopen the way toward the $60,000 area if geopolitical tensions intensify or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

Despite the rebound from recent lows, it is still too early to call the end of the broader downtrend. As I warned in the article Bitcoin retreats below $63,500 as Middle East tensions trigger fresh risk-off selling, the recent recovery has yet to produce the technical confirmation needed to signal a lasting reversal. Bitcoin continues to trade below key resistance levels, while downside risks toward the $60,000 area remain firmly in place if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further, geopolitical tensions escalate, or institutional demand weakens again.

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