Coinbase faces lower earnings estimates as Clarity Act outlook supports stock case

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Coinbase earnings & Clarity Act

Highlights

Benchmark lowered Coinbase's Q2 revenue estimate to $1.38 billion from $1.51 billion and 2026 estimate to $6 billion from $6.33 billion, maintaining Buy rating and $270 target.
Coinbase transaction revenue expected to fall over 5% amid a 28% drop in centralized exchange spot trading volumes and 13% dip in crypto market cap in Q2.
Clarity Act's legislative progress and regulatory clarity seen as key catalysts for Coinbase, with Benchmark seeing significant upside if the act becomes law.

Revised forecasts before earnings report

The Block reported that Benchmark lowered its second-quarter and full-year 2026 estimates for Coinbase in a Wednesday client note, while keeping its Buy rating and $270 price target. Analyst Mark Palmer reduced his second-quarter revenue forecast to $1.38 billion from $1.51 billion and cut his full-year 2026 estimate to $6 billion from $6.33 billion.

Palmer said the trading environment for Coinbase during the second quarter is difficult, pointing to a roughly 28% decline in centralized exchange spot trading volume, weaker perpetual futures activity and a roughly 13% drop in crypto market capitalization during the period. Benchmark still expects transaction revenue to fall by more than 5%, despite some improvement late in the quarter.

Coinbase shares are trading around $172 on Wednesday morning, down about 2% on the day and roughly 27% year to date. Benchmark's $270 target implies about 57% upside from current levels.

Clarity Act seen as bigger catalyst

Benchmark argues that the more important issue for Coinbase investors is the outlook for the crypto market in the second half of the year. Palmer said the market has not yet priced in the option value of the Clarity Act and described Coinbase as one of the legislation's biggest potential beneficiaries if it becomes law.

June trading activity offers an early sign of stabilization, with spot volumes rising back above $1 trillion for the first time since March. That rebound could help limit the effect of a weak quarter, but the regulatory path is emerging as a more significant potential driver for sentiment across the U.S. crypto sector.

The note follows a move by President Donald Trump a day earlier to approve ethics language that clears the last major hurdle for the sweeping U.S. crypto market structure bill. The proposal would bar federal officials from issuing cryptocurrencies and place enforcement with the Justice Department.

In our earlier article on the House Financial Services Committee’s anti-fraud staff report, we outlined a policy framework aimed at countering the rise of financial scams and strengthening consumer protections. We also noted the push for tighter coordination among regulators, law enforcement, and private-sector firms to better detect and prevent increasingly sophisticated, often transnational fraud schemes.

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