Ethereum ETF demand clashes with weakening price momentum
Ethereum continues to show relative strength against Bitcoin thanks to ETF inflows, but its technical outlook has weakened noticeably. A break below $1,850 could accelerate the decline toward the 50-day SMA near $1,740.
Unlike spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded net outflows of around $225.2 million on July 23, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $26.3 million. Since July 20, total inflows into ETH funds have reached $174.5 million, suggesting that Ethereum continues to attract comparatively stronger institutional demand.
However, these inflows failed to shield ETH from short-term selling pressure. According to Arkham, Abraxas Capital transferred 30,825 ETH worth approximately $59.19 million to Binance.
A break below $1,850 could expose the 50-day SMA
The base-case scenario from the previous analysis played out in full. Ethereum broke below its local ascending trendline, moved below $1,900 and tested the $1,850 area.
Key support for today remains at $1,850. A decisive break and sustained move below this level would intensify the correction and open the way toward the 50-day SMA near $1,740.
If buyers defend $1,850 and push the price back above $1,900, ETH could make another attempt to test resistance at $1,950. However, this would likely require a strong fundamental catalyst, so a near-term move lower remains the base-case scenario.
Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin but correlation stays high
ETF inflows support Ethereum’s medium-term fundamental outlook, but its short-term technical structure remains weak. The price reaction at $1,850 will determine whether the current correction develops into a deeper decline.
Ethereum has recently performed slightly better than BTC, but the two assets remain closely correlated. Any further recovery in ETH will therefore depend largely on Bitcoin stabilizing and broader sentiment across the cryptocurrency market.
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