Bitcoin continues to trade without a clear directional bias, with price action currently confined between resistance in the $65,300-$65,400 area and support near $63,800. The broader picture on the 4-hour chart remains neutral, as the cryptocurrency has spent an extended period in a consolidation phase.
Fed outlook remains a key macro driver
The macro backdrop remains mixed. A weak July U.S. labor market report, which showed payrolls falling by 23,000 alongside downward revisions to May and June data, significantly reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. That pressured the U.S. dollar and provided support for BTC.
At the same time, elevated energy prices continue to sustain inflation risks. Ahead of the July CPI release, markets are therefore not prepared to fully rule out another rate increase. At its July 29 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, while three FOMC members voted in favor of a 25-basis-point increase.
Bitcoin ETF flows send mixed signal
Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain mixed. The funds attracted around $854 million during the week of August 3-7, pointing to a recovery in institutional demand. That trend reversed on August 10, however, when net outflows reached approximately $144.6 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording the largest redemptions.
Despite that setback, aggregate flows over the past five trading sessions remain positive at roughly $551 million. A single day of outflows therefore does not yet signal a broader reversal in institutional demand. For BTC to extend its advance, sustained daily ETF inflows would likely need to resume, particularly if the price attempts to establish a foothold above $65,000.
$64,400 caps recovery as range trading persists
Following the decline toward $63,800 support, Bitcoin's recovery has been capped by local resistance near $64,400, leaving the market vulnerable to another test of the lower boundary. A decisive break below $63,800 and a deeper selloff still appear relatively unlikely at this stage.
A break above $64,400 would shift attention toward $64,800-$65,200, where selling interest could remain elevated. In the near term, Bitcoin, as noted in Bitcoin holds bullish bias below $65,500 resistance, may continue to consolidate within its established trading range.
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