Cardano rises around 10.5% as Dijkstra upgrade boosts DeFi prospects

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Cardano surges 10.51% today to $0.191

Highlights

Cardano activated the Dijkstra upgrade, enabling enhanced scalability and decentralization and supporting new privacy-focused ADA DeFi products on the Midnight Network.
Cardano treasury approved a 12-month allocation of 120 million ADA for DeFi sector growth, managed through phased payments and regular audits.
ADA/USD advanced 10.51% to $0.191 but faces neutral-to-bearish technical signals, with a five-day range of $0.171 to $0.199 and 79% probability of a downward move.

Growth initiatives offset by ETF setback and waning DeFi inflows

The launch of Cardano's Dijkstra network upgrade brought tools such as Nested Transactions and Linear Leios to improve scalability and decentralization. A 12-month allocation of 120 million ADA from the treasury was approved to stimulate growth in the DeFi sector, with oversight through staged payments and audits. Cardano has also announced privacy-preserving ADA DeFi products made possible by this upgrade and the new Midnight Network. Institutional inflows may be limited following Grayscale’s withdrawal of its U.S. spot ADA ETF application and a continued decline in the platform's total value locked.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, points out that despite ADA's 10.51% move after the Dijkstra upgrade, the price remains capped by the 200-day average. He sees the confluence of neutral momentum indicators, like MACD and ADX, along with a bearish AO, as warning signs. The lack of strong institutional interest, highlighted by Grayscale's ETF withdrawal and declining TVL, undermines confidence. He underscores that oversold readings on Stochastic RSI offer only limited respite given the broader weakness. "A failure to hold above $0.187 could push ADA back below $0.171 in the short term," Kharitonov warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Dijkstra upgrade as a catalyst for Cardano's long-term ecosystem growth. He notes significant initiatives such as a 120 million ADA treasury allocation and privacy-focused DeFi products that strengthen the platform's position. Karapetjanc emphasizes that ADA trades above key short- and medium-term averages, reflecting a bullish internal structure despite some external headwinds. "Further development and ecosystem expansion support the case for ADA eventually breaking above $0.199 and resuming its upward trajectory," he states.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, believes ADA exhibits mixed momentum after the upgrade, with short- and medium-term gains facing a tough ceiling at $0.199. He highlights intraday volatility and oversold conditions as key setups for agile traders. Turakhiya notes seller dominance is lingering, but a decisive move could tilt the balance swiftly. "The next sustained trend will emerge from either reclaiming $0.199 or a slip below $0.187 — both levels are primed for short-term plays," the analyst says.

Mixed momentum as short-term strength meets long-term resistance

ADA/USD trades above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $0.185 and $0.174, respectively, but remains below the longer-term 200-day average at $0.225. This configuration suggests short- and medium-term upward momentum, tempered by bearish long-term alignment, with immediate technical focus on the $0.199 ceiling and support near $0.187. Momentum signals are inconsistent: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) both read neutral, while Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.274 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -82.801 indicate waning momentum and a bias to the downside. Stochastic RSI sits at 0, signaling oversold conditions. Sellers maintain slight intraday dominance according to Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -0.004, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) aligns with a strong sell view. Current action is near the session’s high, with intraday volatility amplitude at 8.09%, suggesting strength toward the upper bound. This constructive daily performance diverges from the generally bearish intraday momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted Cardano was exhibiting strong short- and medium-term momentum fueled by network upgrades and DeFi initiatives, despite longer-term resistance. The current analysis adds a cautionary perspective, highlighting that downside risk has risen and that traders should closely monitor the $0.199 level as a potential pivot for any near-term shift in trend.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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