Why is Hyperliquid down today? Selloff and key support levels to watch

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Hyperliquid drops 8.45% to $78.64

Highlights

Hyperliquid ended the fiscal year with HYPE token treasury doubling to 29.3 million tokens and $149.9 million in cash with no debt.
Net income reached $305.5 million on unrealized gains as the platform captured a 9.4% global perpetual futures share and 63% decentralized perpetuals open interest.
HYPE/USD faces ongoing short- and medium-term selling pressure with a projected trading range of $75.48 to $86.28 and 74% probability of further downside.

Treasury growth and market share climb as price faces selling pressure

Hyperliquid reported a strong balance sheet for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, with its HYPE token treasury doubling to 29.3 million tokens, $647 million raised in equity capital, and $149.9 million in cash with no debt, according to Prnewswire. Fiscal year net income reached $305.5 million, primarily due to unrealized gains on treasury holdings, as reported by Pluang. In parallel, the platform achieved a 9.4% share of global perpetual futures volume by June 30, 2026, and a 63% decentralized perpetuals open interest share as of August 23, 2026, based on Benzinga data, while initiatives to seek U.S. regulatory approval for new product types continued; these positive developments have come as price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum and oversold signals as resistance intensifies

On the hourly timeframe, HYPE is trading below both the MA-20 at $83.4 and MA-50 at $82.87, with immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $83.5. The MA-200 on the daily chart remains supportive at $50.41. Momentum indicators are weak: MACD flashes a Sell signal, ADX depicts a neutral trend, and RSI is at 41.35, which is in Sell territory. Stochastic RSI and CCI both indicate oversold conditions, confirming stretched downside pressure, while Bull/Bear Power persists in oversold territory and Awesome Oscillator also aligns with the prevailing bearish momentum.

Sideways bias established as downside risk dominates near term

In the short term, HYPE is likely to trade within a volatility band of $75.48 to $86.28 over the next two to three days. There is a 74% probability of further downside continuation, while the likelihood of a rebound is 26%. The base case scenario is price fluctuation sideways within the stated corridor. A bullish scenario would require a breakout above $83.5, while a break below $75.48 would pave the way for deeper losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Hyperliquid’s treasury growth and equity inflows as clear signs of institutional confidence. He notes that the balance sheet remains robust, with both strong cash reserves and no debt. However, momentum and technicals are still clearly negative in the short run, with oversold signals dominating the tape. Regulatory news and leadership in derivatives drive long-term optimism, but current market sentiment remains bearish. "If HYPE can hold above $75.48 and regulatory progress continues, I expect buyers to return and the fundamental story to reassert itself."

Earlier, analysts noted that potential U.S. regulatory pathways for Hyperliquid could reshape the competitive landscape among decentralized perpetuals exchanges. The current article adds a near-term dimension to this outlook, with Hyperliquid holding a dominant open interest share but facing continued downside risk until decisive price action above $83.5 confirms renewed upward momentum.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.