Bitcoin-gold correlation hits nearly six-year high
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to nearly its highest level in six years. André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, highlighted the shift.
According to the company’s website, the two assets moved closer together amid a bond market selloff and rising yields on long-dated U.S. Treasurys. Bitcoin then gained 22.4% over the following week, its best weekly performance since March 2024. Gold rose about 5% over the same period, while the stock market declined.
According to Dragosch, similar levels of correlation between BTC and gold were last seen in 2020, when governments and central banks launched massive stimulus measures after the start of the pandemic. At the same time, Bitcoin showed a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index at the end of August.
Bitwise believes that as macroeconomic risks increase, investors are increasingly treating gold and Bitcoin similarly as defensive assets. Dragosch said that in such periods, Bitcoin begins to look like a more volatile version of gold.
Bitcoin’s link to stocks weakens
At the same time, Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 moved close to zero in August, according to Glassnode analysts. U.S. stocks were little changed during the period, while Bitcoin rose sharply.
However, Glassnode warned that such divergences during government bond selloffs have often been short-lived in the past. They may indicate a temporary change in market behavior rather than a lasting break in the relationship between Bitcoin and equities.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas also noted that over the past six months, Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks has been lower than that of gold, small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and even U.S. Treasurys.
What else does Bitcoin correlate with?
Bitcoin has repeatedly moved not only with gold but also with the stock market. Its relationship with technology companies and higher-risk equities has been particularly noticeable. In a study by Invesco and Galaxy, BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 small-cap index was around 0.37, while its correlation with the S&P 500 stood at 0.36. The IMF has also pointed to stronger interaction between Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 after the pandemic, as cryptocurrencies became more closely connected to traditional financial markets.
At the same time, Bitcoin does not maintain a stable relationship with any single asset. During periods of strong risk appetite, it may move alongside the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, while concerns about the dollar and debt levels can bring it closer to gold. For example, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has now fallen to roughly a one-year low, while its correlation with gold has reached a six-year high and its relationship with the DXY remains negative.
As a reminder, Ray Dalio previously drew attention to the correlation between Bitcoin and gold.