Bitcoin rises above $81,000 amid Fed rate expectations

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Eugene Komchuk

04.09.2026

Bitcoin rises above $81,000 amid Fed rate expectations — Bitcoin is gradually rising.

Bitcoin is trading around $81,000, up about 4% over the past 24 hours. The move followed a shift in expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision: the probability of a rate hike in September fell to roughly 50% from more than 63% earlier in the week.

As CoinDesk reports, another signal for the market came from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. He said he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflationary pressures continue to ease. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields declined, while demand for risk assets increased.

Among major cryptocurrencies, Zcash posted the strongest gains, rising nearly 15% over the past 24 hours and 20% over the week. Hyperliquid’s HYPE gained about 6%, while XRP added nearly 6%. Ethereum, BNB and Dogecoin rose by 4%–5%, Solana gained around 3%, and TRON advanced just over 1%.

At the same time, the weekly picture remains much weaker. Bitcoin has gained about 1% over the past seven days, Ethereum and XRP are little changed, while Solana and TRON have lost around 3%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $277 million in net inflows on Thursday, although a sustained buying streak has yet to emerge. The previous four trading sessions alternated between inflows and outflows.

Situation in global capital markets

The rally also continued across global stock markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained nearly 1%, while the All Country World Index rose for a third consecutive day. The U.S. dollar stabilized after falling to its lowest level since May.

In Asia, particular attention was focused on the yen. It strengthened by about 2% on Thursday as traders increased bets on further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan and considered the possibility of currency intervention. The yen later gave back part of those gains and traded near 156.35 per dollar.

A stronger yen usually puts pressure on carry trades and can reduce liquidity in risk markets. Bitcoin, however, has so far managed to hold onto its gains. One of the key signals for the market will now be the direction of Bitcoin ETF flows through the end of the week.

Bitcoin’s main problem

At the same time, the war between the U.S. and Iran remains one of the main risk factors for Bitcoin. New strikes and fears of further escalation periodically prompt investors to reduce their exposure to risk assets.

The conflict is also keeping oil prices elevated, increasing inflation risks and potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer. This creates another challenge for Bitcoin: events in 2026 have so far failed to confirm its ability to consistently act as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Research into market behavior during the escalation involving Iran showed that BTC did not provide reliable protection against rising risks.

Earlier, Strategy explained its poorly timed Bitcoin sale.

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