Can the Helicon upgrade prevent AVAX from falling toward $7?
AVAX continues to develop the bearish setup highlighted earlier after losing the 200-day SMA. At the same time, the approaching Helicon upgrade provides a notable fundamental catalyst for the second half of September.
9.06
9.16
Avalanche is preparing to activate Helicon on mainnet on September 22 at 11:00 a.m. ET. The upgrade introduces six Avalanche Community Proposals and brings significant changes to both C-Chain functionality and staking economics.
Key changes include Continuous Execution, a dynamic minimum gas price, automatic staking renewal and a reduction in the minimum validation period to 48 hours. Validator uptime requirements will increase from 80% to 90%, while the minimum reward curve will be lowered.
For AVAX, Helicon represents a positive medium-term catalyst. So far, however, the approaching upgrade has not been enough to reverse the token’s short-term weakness.
AVAX needs $7.60 support to stabilize
The base-case setup from the previous analysis has started to play out. On September 8, AVAX closed below the 200-day SMA near $8.05, after which selling pressure continued.
The $7.60 target remains relevant through the end of the trading week, while a short-term bearish divergence on the RSI (14) adds another negative technical signal.
A sustained move below this support would increase the probability of a further decline toward the $7.20–7.00 area. If buyers manage to defend it, AVAX could attempt another test of the 200-day SMA.
Macro risks could overshadow Helicon catalyst
Over the next several days, Avalanche-specific developments may take a back seat to broader market forces. Geopolitical tensions are keeping oil prices elevated and increasing concerns about renewed inflationary pressure, weighing on risk assets.
Additional volatility could emerge around PPI on September 10, CPI on September 11, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15 and the Fed decision on September 16. As a result, even the positive impact of Helicon could remain secondary to the broader risk-off environment for now.
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