Plasma rises nearly 15% as token unlock anticipation fuels bullish momentum

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Plasma surges 14.65% on token unlock

Highlights

Plasma will unlock about 1.76 billion XPL tokens valued at $158 million on September 25, representing 63.2% of supply.
Two major holders are expected to acquire most of the newly unlocked XPL tokens, concentrating ownership further.
Technical signals show strong upward momentum for XPL, with expected trading between $0.0937 to $0.1143 in the next five days.

Major holder acquisition risks emerge as token unlock approaches

A significant token unlock event for Plasma is upcoming on September 25, releasing approximately 1.76 billion XPL tokens valued at $158 million, or around 63.2% of the supply. Two major holders are expected to acquire most of these tokens. This unlock is considered one of the largest in the crypto sector this week, with potential implications for the Plasma ecosystem.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the sharp XPL rally as technically overextended against looming fundamental risks. He notes that the token unlock will introduce significant new supply — most of which is controlled by two major holders — potentially heightening sell pressure. Momentum indicators are mixed, with resilience above moving averages but a longer-term bearish trend still visible. Kharitonov warns that volatility remains elevated and oscillators show divergence, making further upside questionable. "Despite the recent price jump, I view the concentration of unlocked tokens as a major vulnerability for XPL in the near term."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights that bullish momentum for XPL remains robust, with the market embracing the upcoming token unlock as a potential growth catalyst. He sees strong technical alignment above major moving averages, supported by favorable sentiment and clear buyer dominance. Karapetjanc believes the ecosystem stands to benefit from renewed interest and increased liquidity post-unlock. "With the bullish structure intact and additional tokens entering circulation, I expect further growth opportunities to emerge for XPL traders this week."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, takes a cautious view of the recent XPL surge amid the forthcoming large-scale token unlock. He stresses that concentrated allocations to just two holders pose an outsized systemic risk for the market. Persistent volatility and conflicting technical signals add to uncertainty. "Given the potential for abrupt reversals after the unlock, I advise traders to remain defensive until supply risks are resolved."

Bullish bias persists amid mixed momentum and shifting support

XPL/USD remains above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at $0.0876, $0.0844, and $0.0933, indicating a bullish setup across all key timeframes. Immediate resistance is established at $0.1143, while near-term support stands at $0.0985, with the longer-term moving average structure still described as bearish. Momentum indicators reinforce upside prospects: both MACD and ADX signal strength on the buy side. The RSI at 51.70 and CCI are neutral, while Stochastic RSI at 54.09 signals a sell. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.0085 highlights intraday buyer dominance. Price action is near session highs following a gap-down open, with intraday volatility measured at 10.43%. Oscillators are mixed, reflecting some divergence amid broad positive momentum.

In a recent review, analysts highlighted that Plasma’s bullish technical alignment was offset by persistent mixed signals from momentum oscillators. The upcoming major token unlock introduces a new catalyst that could disrupt the prevailing trading range, making price action around the $0.1143 resistance level especially critical to watch in the near term.

Source of Data: XPL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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