BTC/USD remains under pressure despite recovery from $82,600

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Bitcoin pressured by rising Treasury yields

Treasury yields limit demand for risk

The main factor restraining Bitcoin’s growth at the moment remains the bond market. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is holding around 5.23%, only slightly below the previously reached 5.27%, the highest level since 2007, while 30-year securities are trading with a yield of approximately 5.54–5.56%. High oil prices and persistent inflation risks are forcing the market to price in a more hawkish Fed trajectory, while yields above 5% make risk-free U.S. dollar assets a noticeably more attractive alternative for capital.

Additional caution is connected with expectations for new U.S. inflation and labor market data, so investors are not yet rushing to aggressively increase positions in risk assets.

ETF flows support institutional demand

At the same time, flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have improved noticeably in recent sessions. After outflows of $450.4 million on September 15 and $295.9 million on September 16, the situation reversed: on September 17, the funds received about $159.5 million, on September 18 about $433 million, and on September 21 inflows approached $1 billion.

Positive flows then continued, including approximately $714.7 million on September 22, $346.9 million on September 23, $190.7 million on September 24, and $134.5 million on September 25. This shows that institutional demand is still holding up even against the backdrop of rising yields and deteriorating overall risk appetite. ETF buying is now one of the main factors preventing the correction from quickly turning into a deeper sell-off.

$82,600 becomes key support

Within the crypto market itself, the picture has become more cautious. After the sharp rise toward $87,000, some speculative positions were closed, while the subsequent decline below $83,000 showed how sensitive the market remains to liquidity and large orders.

At this stage, BTC is trading mixed, while pressure remains and, with it, the risks of a break below support around $82,600 and a decline toward the psychological $80,000 level. A recovery above the nearest resistance, as I warned in BTC/USD extends decline as yields keep pressure on buyers, could lead to growth toward $85,000–85,200, where selling may appear again, although a confident consolidation above this zone could noticeably weaken bearish pressure.

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