Kalshi short-duration gold markets surpass Ether in fee generation

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Kalshi gold markets surpass Ether

Highlights

Kalshi’s 15-minute gold contracts generated about $5 million in fees in September, nearly double Ether's $2.6 million, despite launching a month later.
Gold overtook Ether in September as Kalshi’s top short-duration commodity with 542 million contracts traded versus Ether’s 318 million.
Short-duration markets drove 80% of Kalshi’s non-sport fees—$20.4 million—in the week through Oct. 5, while accounting for 13% of volume but 20% of fees.

Fee growth in new gold contracts

As reported by Cointelegraph, citing Predict Charts, Kalshi’s 15-minute gold markets generated nearly twice the estimated trading fees of equivalent Ether markets in September, despite launching only weeks earlier in August.

The contracts allow traders to bet on whether gold will rise or fall over 15-minute intervals. Predict Charts estimates the gold markets produced about $5 million in fees during September, compared with $2.6 million for Ether contracts. Bitcoin still leads Kalshi’s lineup by a wide margin, generating $60.4 million in estimated fees.

Kalshi’s broader commodities business is also expanding. The company said in September that commodities trading volume reached $400 million within seven months, more than four times the volume its crypto markets generated at the same stage. Kalshi said crypto markets showed how new categories on the platform can scale from tens of millions to billions in monthly volume.

Short-duration trading becomes larger business driver

Platform data indicate 15-minute Bitcoin markets became Kalshi’s biggest market series outside parlays in July after launching in December. Ether’s short-duration contracts also grew rapidly, rising to 233 million contracts from 6.1 million between January and July 2026.

Although Ether’s 15-minute contracts climbed further to 318 million in September, gold overtook them with 542 million contracts traded during the month. That shift suggests commodities are becoming a stronger draw within Kalshi’s fast-expanding non-sports business.

An InGame analysis published on Tuesday found that 15-minute crypto, commodity and financial markets generated $20.4 million in fees in the seven days through Oct. 5, representing 80% of Kalshi’s non-sport fees in that period. The analysis also found that short-duration markets accounted for 13% of trading volume over the past week but 20% of fees, reflecting Kalshi’s pricing formula, which produces higher fees as a share of volume when contract odds sit close to 50/50.

In our earlier coverage of gold edging lower ahead of the Fed’s September meeting minutes, we noted that bullion was under pressure as traders priced in a high probability of another U.S. rate hike by December. We also highlighted that officials continued to emphasize inflation risks, keeping the interest-rate outlook—and gold’s near-term sensitivity to yields and the dollar—in focus.

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