Polygon holds above 200-day support after more than 10% slide: weekly analysis

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Polygon falls 11.65% over the week

Highlights

Polygon fell 11.65% over the past 7 days, now trading at $0.1026 near key support within its weekly range.
MACD retains a bullish signal while Stochastic RSI is oversold, indicating underlying long-term strength despite current weakness.
Expected price range for next week is $0.097 to $0.1081, with a decisive move above $0.103 needed to target $0.1079.

Major protocol upgrades and rising staking rewards reshape sentiment this week

Polygon underwent significant upgrades last week, most notably the Lugano hardfork implemented on October 1, 2026, which according to openPR.com, increased staking rewards for POL holders and raised the estimated gross staking rate to 7.7% through December 1, using 27.3 million POL in accrued priority fees, TronWeekly reported. The network’s cumulative transfer volume passed $3 trillion in stablecoin and settlement transactions earlier in 2026, highlighting its growing payments infrastructure, as also noted by TronWeekly. The rollout of Polymarket’s Protocol V2 on October 6, confirmed by TradingView, cointribune.com, and Pluang, aims to improve security and cross-chain settlement, and ongoing anticipation surrounds hints at another upcoming network update according to Coinfomania.

Mixed technical momentum persists as oversold RSI meets resistance

On the daily chart, a sharp move lower without a sustained trend is reflected in the 10.1% volatility and the developing trend strength. While the Stochastic RSI is in the oversold zone, MACD remains in buy territory at 0.0026, highlighting a divergence between short-term weakness and underlying bullish momentum. Support sits at $0.0891 from the 200-day average, with resistance at $0.103 where price is currently testing the 50-day, and the Kijun line at $0.1079 adds further overhead resistance. This technical landscape points to an uncertain near-term direction, with oversold momentum offering a potential base, but immediate upside remains limited by resistance.

Breakout risk escalates as price tests key range in the coming week

Next week, the expected range is $0.097 to $0.1081. The probability of an increase stands at 57%, with a 43% chance of a decrease. The base case sees Polygon trading between the $0.103 resistance and $0.0891 support, with recovery momentum needing a decisive break above $0.103 to target $0.1079. If the price falls below $0.0891, further downside risk would open up.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Polygon’s recent drop as a technical reset rather than a change in the bullish structure. He notes the Lugano hardfork and new protocol upgrades are strengthening the underlying fundamentals, driving greater network adoption and increasing POL’s staking yield. Despite clear volatility and pressure near resistance at $0.103, oversold readings and steady MACD signal constructive momentum ahead. The analyst expects trading between $0.097 and $0.1081, with a 57% probability of a rebound if $0.103 is broken. "If this week brings a decisive move above resistance, further growth toward $0.1079 is very much on the table."

Previously it was reported that Polygon remained under sustained selling pressure despite notable on-chain activity and updates to its staking incentives. The current article adds a new dimension by analyzing recent network upgrades and technical divergences, highlighting $0.103 as the key resistance level that traders should monitor for signs of a potential recovery.

Source of Data: POL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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