Can mainnet Protocol 28 upgrade uncertainty push Pi lower?

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Pi drops 7.62% today to $0.081

Highlights

Pi Network schedules a mainnet upgrade to Protocol 28, requiring a mandatory node update by October 13 and mainnet rollout on October 16.
A compressed migration window may disrupt network reliability and encourages market participants to adjust positions ahead of the transition.
PI/USD trades below key moving averages and bearish momentum dominates, with the expected price range at $0.0793 to $0.0827 over the next two to three trading days.

Tight upgrade timeline fuels operational risk and sentiment caution

Pi Network’s announcement of a mainnet upgrade to Protocol 28, with a mandatory update for node operators by October 13 and the mainnet rollout scheduled for October 16, sets a firm timeline for technical migration, according to Fxstreet. This upgrade requires all operators to act within a narrow window, possibly introducing operational uncertainty and driving market participants to preemptively adjust positions. The forthcoming changes may impact network reliability in the short term as the transition approaches, dampening immediate sentiment around the asset.

Bearish momentum strengthens as traders ignore Kijun resistance

On the hourly chart, PI trades below both the MA-20 and MA-50, and on the daily timeframe, it remains well beneath the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun is positioned at $0.0848, serving as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators on the h1 chart—including MACD and ADX—are both pointing lower, supporting downside momentum. RSI and CCI remain in sell territory, while only the Stoch RSI signals a strong buy, indicating a rare divergence among oscillators. Bull/Bear Power is negative and the Awesome Oscillator supports continued downside, confirming sellers’ dominance in the current session.

Limited upside prospects as consolidation likely to persist

Over the next two to three trading days, PI is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $0.0793 and $0.0827. The most probable scenario sees continued consolidation near current levels, with a low probability of an upside move. Breaking above the $0.0848 Kijun resistance would open the way for renewed momentum higher, while a sustained move below the $0.0793 support could intensify bearish momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the upcoming mainnet upgrade as a key fundamental catalyst for Pi in the days ahead. He believes current price pressure reflects short-term uncertainty as operators prepare for Protocol 28, but the firm upgrade timeline ultimately supports confidence in network development. Karapetjanc notes that momentum indicators are negative for now, though sentiment could shift as the protocol transition is completed. "From a macro and sentiment perspective, I expect Pi to stabilize as the mainnet upgrade concludes, with risk appetite likely to recover if technical execution proceeds smoothly."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent bearish momentum and limited user migration continued to weigh on Pi despite protocol upgrades. The current update reinforces this negative technical outlook and highlights the importance of monitoring the $0.0848 resistance and $0.0793 support as key levels that could determine Pi's next directional move.

Source of Data: PI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.