What's behind Avalanche's latest 11.8% price pullback?

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Avalanche slides 11.82% today

Highlights

Avalanche's tokenized U.S. Treasuries market value surged to about $545 million, rising fourfold over the past year and 14% in Q3 2026.
Total value of tokenized assets on Avalanche exceeded $1.67 billion, making it the fifth-largest blockchain by this metric as onchain credit activity hit record loan volume at $37.4 million in Q3.
AVAX/USD trades below the 20-day average with short-term selling pressure but retains medium-term bullish signals and an expected five-day range of $9.29 to $10.9.

Institutional demand grows as tokenized asset and credit volumes surge

Avalanche's ecosystem saw significant expansion as its tokenized U.S. Treasuries market value reached approximately $545 million, a fourfold increase over the past year and up 14% during Q3 2026. The total value of tokenized assets rose to more than $1.67 billion, making Avalanche the fifth-largest blockchain in this category. Onchain credit activity climbed as Q3 loan volume set a record at $37.4 million, influenced by new institutional partnerships and Aave V4 market activations, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights the sharp 11.82% drop in AVAX and persistent pressure below the 20-day average. He is wary of the mixed momentum signals and notes that recent gains in tokenized asset adoption have failed to stem selling. Kharitonov points out that short-term buyers remain active, but strong support at $9.59 needs to hold. He adds that volatility and technical divergence raise caution for traders. "Until we see a sustained move above $10.45, downside risks and weak sentiment dominate the outlook," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Avalanche’s expanding tokenized assets and institutional loan growth as clear signs of robust ecosystem health. He believes the underlying bullish structure remains intact, despite the pullback. The strong onchain growth and recent partnerships reinforce positive fundamentals. Market conditions continue to offer multiple setups within the current volatility band. "I expect further growth as Avalanche cements its position as a leading blockchain for tokenized assets," Karapetjanc affirms.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees AVAX in a consolidation phase with mixed short-term signals. He notes the interplay between positive momentum readings and oversold conditions from the Stochastic RSI. Turakhiya finds that sentiment-driven setups are likely as price approaches key support and resistance. "The current range between $9.29 and $10.9 creates tactical opportunities on both sides for active traders," Turakhiya suggests.

Short-term bearish break contrasts with medium-term bullish momentum

AVAX/USD is trading below its 20-day moving average ($10.8), but stays above the 50-day ($8.8) and 200-day ($8.12) averages, indicating short-term selling within an overall bullish structure for the medium and long term. The nearest support sits at $9.59, while immediate resistance is at $10.45. Momentum remains mostly positive, with the MACD and ADX generating buy signals and the CCI also indicating a bullish bias. The RSI points to ongoing buying interest, even as the Stochastic RSI now shows oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive at 0.74, signaling intraday dominance by buyers, though it also flags overbought conditions. AVAX/USD declined to $9.93 with a daily drop of 1.33, down 11.82% after a gap lower, as the price nears session lows with intraday volatility at 6.97% and some divergence in short-term momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche faced sustained downside risk despite notable growth in its tokenized asset sector, with technical indicators signaling persistent selling pressure. The current analysis adds that while short-term weakness persists, an upward move remains likely, making the $9.59 support and $10.45 resistance levels critical thresholds to monitor for potential breakout or breakdown in the coming days.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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