Bitcoin price prediction: BTC holds steady as market probes consolidation boundary

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BTC holds steady as market probes consolidation boundary

Highlights

-Bitcoin rebounds 1% today after dropping to a 7-day low near $116,100 support

-Bitcoin RSI climbs above 50 after hitting its lowest since July 2 on the 4-hour chart

0SOPR shows long-term holders taking profit in moderation below macro top danger zone

The week began with a brief bullish push on Monday. Price climbed from the weekly open at $116,900, to reach a three-day high at $119,600. However, the early gains faded as sellers stepped in later that day, leaving Bitcoin to close slightly higher but ending a three-day losing streak. This lack of follow-through sent the market lower again during Tuesday’s Asian session, pulling Bitcoin to a seven-day low at the lower boundary of the consolidation.

Bitcoin price dynamic (July 2025). Source: Tradingview

Since the London open on Tuesday, Bitcoin has recovered and is now trading near $118,000 in the European session, gaining over 0.5% for the day. The rebound from recent lows aligns with a slight technical shift. After Bitcoin RSI declined to a low near 41 on the four-hour chart, ‘its lowest reading since July 2. ’ The RSI has climbed back above 50. This shows a short-term transition from bearish momentum to a more neutral or early bullish setup.

Bitcoin SOPR climbs slowly as long-term holders take modest profits

However, a deeper view of on-chain activity provides a wider context. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders is gradually rising. This metric reflects the profitability of coins moved by those holding for over 155 days. Although some long-term investors are beginning to take profits, the SOPR value still trades well below the critical 4.0 mark historically tied to macrocycle tops. This implies profit-taking is controlled and lacks the emotional selling seen during euphoric peaks.

In essence, while consolidation suggests cooling interest, the ongoing activity among long-term holders and derivatives traders points to a market not yet near exhaustion. So long as the SOPR holds beneath historical danger zones and RSI avoids returning below 41, Bitcoin’s structure supports a possible retest of $119,600 and even $120,000.

Should buyers break through $120,000, the recent all-time high at $122,000 becomes the next technical magnet. Until then, the base of this consolidation at $116,100 remains the key floor to defend.

Bitcoin rebounded as Asian and European traders bought the dip ahead of the $120,000 mark. Bitcoin formed a golden cross while RSI climbed above neutral, indicating bullish momentum.

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