ENA slides over 11% as protocol growth is overshadowed by selling pressure

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Ethena slides 11.19% today to $0.21

Highlights

Ethena surpassed $1.061 billion in cumulative protocol fees and USDe market capitalization approached $4.8 billion as of October 12, 2026.
Investor token unlocks were consolidated into a single release on October 5, 2026, ending monthly VC unlocks amid ongoing selling pressure.
ENA/USD trades below its 20-day average and near session lows, with a five-session range forecast of $0.1696 to $0.2395 and technical signals suggesting a very high probability of upside if resistance at $0.2153 is broken.

Profit realization and consolidated unlocks intensify selling despite milestones

Ethena's governance token recorded notable on-chain and protocol developments, highlighted by surpassing $1.061 billion in cumulative protocol fees and USDe's market capitalization nearing $4.8 billion as of October 12, 2026. A major spike in realized profits was also reported, with $17.7 million in profits booked within a single hour and increased large-holder transaction activity. Ethena consolidated all remaining investor token unlocks into a single release on October 5, 2026, ending recurring monthly VC unlocks, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees significant near-term downside for Ethena as profit-taking and a major token unlock overwhelm any positive protocol achievements. He notes ENA is stuck below key resistance at $0.2153 while intraday buyers show only slight dominance, suggesting weak demand. Technicals reveal the price fell sharply to $0.21 and sits under the 20-day average, giving skeptics little reason for optimism. Kharitonov is critical of the bullish bias in some momentum indicators given recent heavy selling and doubts that ending VC unlocks will immediately support price. "Unless buyers reclaim $0.2153 quickly, ENA looks vulnerable to deeper correction toward $0.194 or even $0.1696."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the consolidation of Ethena’s unlocks and strong protocol growth as positioning the project for a bullish breakout. He emphasizes ENA’s impressive fundamentals, including over $1 billion in protocol fees and a surging USDe market cap, as signs of ongoing adoption and investor interest. Medium- and long-term technical alignment remains bullish, with a high probability of recovery above $0.2153. Karapetjanc believes sentiment can quickly reverse as legacy selling unwinds. "This structure offers investors attractive entry points, and I expect further growth as the bullish trend resumes above key resistance."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, is skeptical of ENA’s outlook after the sharp 11.19% drop and heightened volatility. He points out that recent profit-taking and block unlocks signal a loss of short-term confidence. Macro uncertainty and sentiment weakness could continue to weigh on price despite protocol milestones. "I remain cautious until there is clear evidence of renewed demand and stabilization above $0.2153."

Short-term weakness as price nears support and medium-term trend steadies

ENA/USD is trading below its 20-day moving average at $0.2392, but remains above the 50-day at $0.1918 and 200-day at $0.1183. This structure suggests near-term downside pressure, though the medium- and long-term trend remains constructive with confirmation of bullish alignment versus the 200-day average. Immediate resistance is flagged at $0.2153 with support at $0.194; the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.2161 reinforces nearby overhead resistance. Momentum signals paint a mixed but moderately constructive picture. MACD and Average Directional Index (ADX) both show a buy bias, confirming underlying bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 57.7, implying room for further moves without overbought risk. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.0129 shows buyers slightly dominating intraday flow. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) holds neutral, and Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also remain neutral. On the day ENA/USD is down to $0.21, slipping 11.19% after an upside gap of 0.47%, with price holding near session lows and intraday volatility at 14.91%. The overall tone is pressured, with the drop toward the low end of the range broadly matching the momentum setup, although some oscillators counter the medium-term bullish readings.

Previously it was reported that aggressive short liquidations and record on-chain profits positioned Ethena for ongoing buyer dominance and potential further gains. The current data adds a new dimension, as concentrated token unlocks and profit-taking have introduced sustained downside pressure, making the $0.194 support level pivotal for traders monitoring the next directional shift.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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