JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will outperform U.S. stocks and gold over the next 15 years
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term investment return forecasts for the first time, projecting an annualized return of 10% over the next 10–15 years. The estimate exceeds its forecasts for U.S. stocks, gold and real estate investment trusts.
The projection was presented in the annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published on October 19, 2026. The report covers more than 200 asset classes and is designed to support long-term investment planning.
Despite the strong return outlook, JPMorgan analysts warn of significant risks associated with Bitcoin. Its expected volatility is nearly three times that of the U.S. stock market and gold.
Bitcoin could outperform traditional assets
According to JPMorgan's estimates, Bitcoin is expected to deliver a compound annual return of 10% over the next 10–15 years. The bank forecasts returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for real estate investment trusts and 5.5% for gold.
Bitcoin's projected return is therefore 2.5 percentage points higher than that of U.S. stocks and 4.5 percentage points above gold.
Analysts also estimate Bitcoin's arithmetic average annual return at 20.9%. The difference between the two measures reflects the impact of price fluctuations on long-term investment performance.
Bitcoin's projected annual volatility stands at 55%, compared with approximately 18% for U.S. stocks and 17.2% for gold.
Despite including the cryptocurrency in its research, JPMorgan has not added it to its core asset allocation models. The decision reflects Bitcoin's unstable correlations with traditional assets and the difficulty of predicting its behavior during market disruptions.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted JPMorgan's estimates, noting that Bitcoin received the highest projected return among the assets compared.
JPMorgan expands its presence in the cryptocurrency market
The asset manager also forecasts an annualized return of 7% for a traditional portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. It identified AI-driven productivity gains and rising corporate profits as potential growth drivers.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan continues to develop its infrastructure for digital asset transactions. The bank is expanding the use of tokenization in settlements between institutional clients.
On October 19, reports emerged that JPMorgan had expanded support for its JPM Coin deposit token to the Ethereum network. The U.S. dollar-denominated instrument is designed to facilitate payments between financial institutions.
Earlier, we reported that JPMorgan expanded its U.S. national security investment initiative, allocating $5 billion for equity investments in companies. The initiative aims to support strategically important sectors of the U.S. economy.
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