Ethereum weekly outlook: Can ETH overcome bearish momentum with MACD signaling further downside?

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Ethereum slips 1.52% this week

Highlights

Ethereum trades at $2,452 after a $39.4 decrease over 7 days, holding below short-term moving averages.
Technical structure remains bearish with ongoing negative momentum and an ADX reading consistent with a sell trend.
Expected price range for the coming week is $2,359 to $2,560, with resistance at $2,494 and support at $2,318.

Ongoing U.S. ETF withdrawals balanced by record staking and Glamsterdam upgrade

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant net outflows, with $26.13 million withdrawn on October 20 and a weekly total of $320.1 million, according to TokenPost and CryptoTicker. Despite 15 straight sessions of ETF outflows, the asset consistently maintained support, as highlighted by FXStreet and Invezz. Meanwhile, Ethereum staking reached a new high, and the upcoming 'Glamsterdam' upgrade is set for activation on the Hoodi testnet on October 26 according to Coinpaper and TokenPost, marking ongoing network development momentum (source: FXStreet).

MACD-led bearish momentum intensifies as price holds near weekly support

The daily chart reveals a sustained move lower with a firm trend, underscored by a 7.59% volatility over the past week. MACD signals ongoing bearish momentum, while ADX at 29.31 also points to a sell trend. Support is marked at $2,318 and resistance at $2,494, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $2,547 serving as an additional resistance zone. With price action holding in the upper part of the weekly range, short-term bearish momentum is in focus.

Range-trading bias dominates with breakout risks near resistance next week

In the week ahead, Ethereum is expected to trade between $2,359 and $2,560. There is a 45% probability of an increase and a 55% probability of a decrease. Base case sees further range-trading below resistance at $2,494. A bullish scenario emerges only with a clear move above $2,494 and $2,547, while a drop below $2,318 would confirm renewed downside pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethereum under continued pressure after another week of net ETF outflows and muted institutional sentiment. He notes that Ethereum held above key support, despite $320.1 million leaving U.S. spot ETFs and 15 straight sessions of withdrawals. Technically, daily chart momentum remains bearish, with the MACD and ADX at 29.31 both pointing to downside risk. Resistance sits at $2,494 and strong support is at $2,318, while the price stays contained in the upper weekly range. For the coming week, Kharitonov assigns a 55% probability to further declines, while a break above $2,494 is needed to shift the outlook. "As long as Ethereum stays below $2,494, I remain cautious and expect range-bound or lower prices until sentiment decisively turns."

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum’s price maintained technical resilience and a constructive outlook amid record staking levels and sustained protocol upgrades, even as ETF outflows persisted. The current analysis adds a more cautious dimension, highlighting that with bearish momentum building, traders should monitor the $2,494 resistance for signals of a trend reversal or renewed downside if $2,318 is breached.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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