AVAX continues to slide as supply increase and weak technicals weigh on sentiment

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Avalanche slides 6.69% today to $9.18

Highlights

COTI introduced Privacy-on-Demand and the Privacy Portal on Avalanche, enabling private AVAX and USDC transfers within the network.
Avalanche reported $3.4 billion in total value locked and released $16.25 million in AVAX from team and investor allocations.
AVAX/USD trades below short- and medium-term moving averages with strong downside risk and an expected range of $8.9 to $9.78 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Privacy launch and token unlock expand Avalanche utility, boost liquidity

On September 16, 2026, COTI launched Privacy-on-Demand and the Privacy Portal on Avalanche, enabling users to conduct private AVAX and USDC transfers without leaving the network, according to Fxnewsgroup. This product release broadened Avalanche's native functionality by introducing confidential transactions, expanding its potential utility for users and developers. Additional context from Tokenpost indicated that, as of September 7, 2026, Avalanche’s total value locked stood at $3.4 billion, reinforcing its position as a leading smart-contract platform. The network also experienced a cliff unlock of $16.25 million, or approximately 0.38% of AVAX supply, releasing team and investor allocations into secondary market liquidity, as reported by Phemex.

Downside momentum and oversold signals as new supply enters market

The current technical setup shows AVAX/USD trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, while remaining above the long-term MA-200. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $9.61. The latest cliff unlock introduced additional supply, which may further weigh on price action. Indicator readings highlight sustained downward momentum, with MACD and ADX both negative, and both RSI (28.89) and CCI deep in oversold territory. Stoch RSI signals are neutral, providing little directional bias, while Bull/Bear Power favors sellers.

Elevated downside risk amid volatile, rangebound trading outlook

In the next 2–3 sessions, price action is anticipated to remain within the $8.9 to $9.78 range, consistent with prevailing high volatility. The probability of a move lower remains significantly elevated, suggesting downside risks outweigh recovery prospects. A baseline scenario involves sideways consolidation between support and resistance, while a break above $9.61 could offer scope for a short-term rebound. Conversely, a drop below $8.9 support would likely trigger further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees Avalanche expanding its ecosystem utility through new privacy features and institutional attention. He believes the recent unlock and technical weakness create immediate headwinds, but larger trends remain constructive. Karapetjanc notes that a strong developer base and increasing institutional signals, such as Schwab's plans, underpin medium-term optimism despite short-term technical pressures. In his words: "If AVAX holds above the $8.9 support and market sentiment stabilizes, I expect renewed upside interest as its fundamental story continues to gain traction."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche’s price action was under pressure due to a lack of new ecosystem catalysts and sensitivity to broader market trends. The introduction of privacy features and a climb in total value locked add new functionality and support, but the prevailing downside momentum suggests traders should closely monitor the $8.9 support for potential further declines.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.