What's behind Ethena's latest 10.0% price pullback?

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Ethena drops 10.03% today on selling

Highlights

Ethena protocol surpassed $1.32 billion in Total Value Locked and generated over $1 billion in fee revenue since August 2026.
A buyback mechanism funded by protocol fees is under consideration, contingent on USDe stablecoin supply reaching $7.5 billion from the current $4.66 billion.
ENA/USD trades below short-term moving averages with heavy downside pressure, but the long-term structure remains bullish inside an expected $0.173 to $0.2246 range.

Buyback potential limited as token unlock and stablecoin supply diverge

Ethena's protocol reported surpassing $1.32 billion in Total Value Locked since August 2026 and over $1 billion in actual fee revenue, fueling discussions on a potential buyback mechanism to be funded by these fees. The buyback plan will depend on the circulating supply of USDe stablecoin reaching $7.5 billion; as of late October 2026, the supply stands at approximately $4.66 billion. A token unlock of 275 million ENA valued at about $57 million is scheduled for November 1, 2026, and major investors such as Janus Henderson have included USDe in cash management strategies, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, emphasizes the persistent downward momentum in ENA given its inability to reclaim the 20- and 50-day moving averages after a heavy 10.03% decline. He notes that despite strong protocol revenues and institutional attention, oversupply risk from the upcoming token unlock and volatile sentiment weigh on the price. Kharitonov sees limited short-term support, with technical signals showing only fragile signs of potential stabilization as intraday sentiment remains bearish. He remains wary of the buyback narrative, highlighting the need for USDe supply growth before any sustainable upside can materialize. "Until ENA regains key averages and unlock risks are absorbed, sellers are likely to dictate the pace," warns Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, underlines fundamental strength in Ethena’s protocol, with high revenue, robust institutional interest, and rapid TVL growth pointing to a maturing ecosystem. He is confident that the upcoming buyback mechanism—once the USDe supply target is met—positions ENA for significant revaluation. Karapetjanc views current price weakness as a positioning opportunity for forward-looking participants amid strong macro and adoption drivers. He believes the bullish structure remains intact above the 200-day average, saying, "With fee revenues and major institutions backing Ethena, I expect ENA to rebound and enter a new growth phase."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that ENA/USD’s technical setup suggests a mixed scenario with price trapped below short-term averages but supported on a long-term basis. He highlights that neutral RSI and elevated Stochastic RSI reflect a market searching for direction, while volatile sentiment offers short-term trading setups. Turakhiya points to the $0.2006 ceiling and $0.196 floor as key triggers for momentum trades during the coming sessions. "Traders should watch for a decisive break from this corridor to catch the next intraday move," he advises.

Short-term weakness persists as long-term trend remains intact

ENA/USD is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $0.2152 and $0.2006, but above the 200-day at $0.1238. This points to lingering short- and medium-term pressure from sellers, yet the long-term structure remains bullish as reflected by the alignment of the 50-day above the 200-day average. The nearest technical ceiling is at $0.2006, with near-term support at $0.196. Momentum signals give a mixed picture. The MACD points to weakness, but the ADX shows underlying trend strength. The RSI is neutral at 53.23, with the Stochastic RSI elevated at 77.14 and the CCI holding near neutral at -11.02, suggesting no clear overbought or oversold condition. Bull/Bear Power at 0.02 indicates buyers hold a slight intraday edge. The pair is down $0.0222 or 10.03% from the previous session, opening with a downside gap of about $0.0072 (3.26%), and currently trades near the day’s low after volatile swings of 9.95%. Intraday sentiment is heavy, with downside pressure dominating early action.

Earlier, analysts noted that ENA’s upward momentum was supported by short covering, but warned of emerging short-term technical weakness despite a structurally positive long-term view. The latest price action reinforces this caution, with traders now advised to monitor the upper bound of the projected volatility range at $0.2246 for signs of a potential breakout or reversal.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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