Plasma faces major token unlock event: Can XPL avoid further losses?

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Plasma drops 9.2% today to $0.0761

Highlights

Plasma is scheduled to unlock a substantial number of tokens on October 25, increasing circulating supply in the near term.
This unlock event and its inclusion among major upcoming releases have increased market focus on potential supply-demand imbalances for Plasma.
XPL/USD trades under sustained selling pressure, with deeply bearish momentum signals and an expected range of $0.073 to $0.0823 over the next sessions.

Selling pressure mounts as token unlock drives negative sentiment

Plasma is set for a substantial token unlock on October 25, according to Coingabbar, raising the prospect of increased circulating supply and heightened selling pressure in the near term. The listing of Plasma among tokens with major unlock events this week may have contributed to negative sentiment as traders anticipate liquidity expansion. Such events can intensify market concerns about supply-demand imbalances, particularly when scheduled closely together with other unlocks in the sector.

Bearish momentum persists as technical barriers reinforce downtrend

On the technical front, XPL/USD is currently trading below the MA-20 ($0.0792) and MA-50 ($0.0799) on the hourly chart, and well under the MA-200 ($0.0917) on the daily timeframe. The immediate resistance is reinforced by the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.0811, while the nearest support is identified around $0.073. Momentum indicators present a decisively bearish structure: MACD, ADX, and Bull/Bear Power all point to seller dominance. RSI is deeply oversold at 26.18, and both Stochastic RSI and CCI signal continued short-term exhaustion. The Awesome Oscillator remains in negative territory, consistent with the prevailing downtrend, and no indicator divergence is observed.

Downside risks persist as consolidation expected within narrow range

In the short term, XPL is expected to trade within a range of $0.073 to $0.0823. The likelihood of an upward move is considered very low, while further downside risk remains pronounced; an opposing scenario is much less probable. The baseline expectation is for consolidation within this narrow corridor, with any bullish scenario requiring a decisive break above immediate resistance. A failure at support near $0.073 could open the way for additional losses as volatility persists.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees prevailing supply-side concerns keeping pressure on Plasma ahead of the October 25 unlock. He believes negative sentiment is driving the market response as traders factor in both macro liquidity risks and asset-specific event risk. The expert notes that with momentum, structure, and sentiment aligned against buyers, the baseline remains muted in the near term. "Plasma may stabilize after the unlock, but traders should be prepared for volatility and continued weakness until clearer demand emerges," says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that Plasma's outlook was constrained by technical weakness and the impending impact of a significant token unlock. The latest price breakdown ahead of the scheduled supply event reaffirms persistent bearish conditions, with the $0.073 support now serving as the critical level to monitor for further downside volatility.

Source of Data: XPL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.