JPMorgan projects bitcoin gains in long-term outlook

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JPMorgan projects bitcoin gains

Highlights

JPMorgan Asset Management's 2024 report includes Bitcoin in its 10-year return models for the first time, projecting a base-case price of $215,300 from $81,000.
JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin could deliver annual returns of 10%, versus 7.5% for large-cap U.S. equities and 5.5% for gold over the same period.
Despite highlighting Bitcoin's volatility and not adding it to core portfolio models, JPMorgan acknowledges growing institutional interest, citing its capped 21 million supply.

Bitcoin outlook enters JPMorgan models

As reported by Weiss Ratings, citing CryptoSlate, JPMorgan Asset Management’s latest long-term market outlook includes Bitcoin in its return assumptions for the first time in the report’s 31-year history. The bank outlines three scenarios for the cryptocurrency over the next 10 years, including a bullish case of about $385,500 and a base case near $215,300, from current levels cited around $81,000.

The base case implies annual gains of roughly 10%, compared with JPMorgan’s expectation of about 7.5% a year for large-cap U.S. equities and 5.5% for gold over the same period. The bank also models a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin declines about 11% annually, taking its price to roughly $25,300 over a decade.

That assessment does not amount to a blanket endorsement of crypto, and the bank continues to flag Bitcoin’s volatility. The asset has not been added to JPMorgan’s main long-term portfolio models, even as the firm gives it a formal place in its broader capital markets outlook.

Institutional view shifts as risks remain

JPMorgan’s analysis reflects a growing view in finance that Bitcoin is becoming harder for large institutions to ignore as an investable asset. The bank’s rationale includes Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins, a feature that supporters argue differentiates it from fiat currencies whose supply can expand over time.

The outlook also suggests Bitcoin could continue to compete with gold as a store-of-value asset in investor portfolios. For the broader market, that framing matters because it places the cryptocurrency less as a speculative trade and more as a potential long-term allocation debate for institutional and retail investors alike.

The contrast between the forecast and Dimon’s public comments remains notable. Dimon has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin in past remarks, including calling it a "pet rock" and, in a 2023 CNBC interview, a "hyped-up fraud," but the bank’s latest modeling indicates it sees a credible case for sustained long-term returns despite those reservations.

In our earlier article on the Philippine Social Security System (SSS) defending its equity portfolio results, we covered how the fund highlighted P204 billion in realized gains and dividend income since 1968 while arguing that recent unrealized losses are not cash losses unless positions are sold below cost. SSS also emphasized a disciplined, long-term approach focused on fundamentally strong companies and income generation, alongside ongoing risk monitoring to manage volatility.

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